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Point shaving? A novel experiment and new insights

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  • Borghesi, Richard
  • Paul, Rodney
  • Weinbach, Andrew

Abstract

In light of the exponential growth in sports betting since 2018, a deeper understanding of the prevalence and nuances of corruption is needed. We demonstrate that in the venues and leagues where the likelihood of game fixing is high (among home teams and in NCAA basketball) point shaving markers are more pronounced, and where it is low (among visiting teams and in NCAA football) such indicators are muted. We explore this suspicious pattern via a natural experiment designed to exploit a positive exogenous shock in media scrutiny. Employing an exceptionally deep and broad dataset we show that corruption markers do not attenuate under social pressure and provide robust evidence that innocuous behaviors explain suspect game and wager outcomes. Our study establishes that a high degree of competitive integrity exists in the NCAA, NBA, and NFL.

Suggested Citation

  • Borghesi, Richard & Paul, Rodney & Weinbach, Andrew, 2024. "Point shaving? A novel experiment and new insights," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:42:y:2024:i:c:s2214635024000509
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100935
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jason P. Berkowitz & Craig A. Depken II & John M. Gandar, 2018. "Exploiting the “Win But Does Not Cover†Phenomenon in College Basketball," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 185-204, February.
    2. Dan Bernhardt & Steven Heston, 2010. "Point Shaving In College Basketball: A Cautionary Tale For Forensic Economics," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 14-25, January.
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    6. George Diemer, 2009. "Point Shaving in the NFL Gambling Market: A Bootstrap Investigation," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(3), pages 13-31, December.
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    9. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2011. "Investigating Allegations of Pointshaving in NCAA Basketball Using Actual Sportsbook Betting Percentages," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(4), pages 432-447, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sports betting; point shaving; behavior; natural experiment; media scrutiny;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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