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Do enlarged fiscal deficits cause inflation? The historical record

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Mickey D. Levy

Abstract

We survey the historical record for two centuries on the connection between expansionary fiscal policy and inflation. The relationship holds in wartime when fiscally stressed governments resorted to the inflation tax. In two peacetime episodes in the early twentieth century, bond‐financed fiscal deficits, unbacked by future taxes, may have contributed to inflation. Fiscal influence on monetary policy was important in the Great Inflation 1965–1983. Expansionary monetary and fiscal policy did not lead to inflation in the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08 but, by contrast, the fiscal and monetary response to the COVID‐19 pandemic may involve risks of fiscal dominance and future inflation.

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  • Michael D. Bordo & Mickey D. Levy, 2021. "Do enlarged fiscal deficits cause inflation? The historical record," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 59-83, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecaffa:v:41:y:2021:i:1:p:59-83
    DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12446
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    4. Oriol Sabaté & Sara Torregrosa-Hetland, 2024. "War inflation and taxation," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2024/463, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Lidiema, Caspah, 2024. "Monetary-fiscal policy interdependence and pricing dynamics: Empirical estimation of fiscal dominance in Kenya," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 83, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    6. Baihua Yuan & Wang Leiling & Hayot Berk Saydaliev & Vishal Dagar & Ángel Acevedo-Duque, 2022. "Testing the impact of fiscal policies for economic recovery: does monetary policy act as catalytic tool for economic Survival," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2215-2235, November.
    7. Michael D. Bordo & William Roberds, 2024. "Central Bank Digital Currencies: An Old Tale with a New Chapter," Working Papers 323, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    8. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Valerie Boctor & Aaron Mehrotra & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Fiscal sources of inflation risk in EMDEs: the role of the external channel," BIS Working Papers 1110, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Pierre L Siklos, 2022. "Monetary, fiscal and demographic interactions in Japan: impact and a comparative assessment," Working Papers halshs-03776217, HAL.
    10. Meng, Fanting, 2024. "Driving sustainable development: Fiscal policy and the promotion of natural resource efficiency," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Víctor I Espinosa & David O Cueva, 2024. "The political economy of fiscal dominance: Evidence from the Chilean government of Salvador Allende," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 118-138, February.

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