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The Great Depression as a Saving Glut

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  • Monnet, Eric
  • Degorce, Victor

Abstract

Facing the Great Depression, Keynes blamed the detrimental consequences of precautionary savings on growth (paradox of thrift). Yet, the magnitude, forms and effects of savings accumulation remain unexplored in studies on the international economic crash of the 1930s. Based on new data for 22 countries, we document that the Great Depression was associated with a large international increase in savings institutions’ deposits. Banking crises spurred precautionary savings. Panel estimations show a negative conditional correlation between real GDP and deposits in savings institutions when a banking crisis hit. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the negative effect of precautionary savings on growth was at least as large as the direct effect of the decline in banking activity. The evolution of the saving rate began to reverse as countries left the gold standard.

Suggested Citation

  • Monnet, Eric & Degorce, Victor, 2020. "The Great Depression as a Saving Glut," CEPR Discussion Papers 15287, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15287
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    Cited by:

    1. Monnet, Eric & Velde, François R., 2020. "Money, Banking, and Old-School Historical Economics," CEPR Discussion Papers 15348, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Marodin, Fabrizio Almeida & Mitchener, Kris James & Richardson, Gary, 2024. "Contagion of fear: Panics, money, and the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Barry Eichengreen, 2021. "Gold and South Africa’s Great Depression," Economic History of Developing Regions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 175-193, May.
    4. Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Johan Walden, 2023. "Visibility Bias in the Transmission of Consumption Beliefs and Undersaving," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1647-1704, June.
    5. Arjen van der Heide & Sebastian Kohl, 2024. "Private Insurance, Public Welfare, and Financial Markets: Alpine and Maritime Countries in Comparative-Historical Perspective," Politics & Society, , vol. 52(2), pages 268-303, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great depression; Banking crises; Precautionary savings; Paradox of thrift; Savings banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions

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