IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1110.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal sources of inflation risk in EMDEs: the role of the external channel

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Niladri Banerjee
  • Valerie Boctor
  • Aaron Mehrotra
  • Fabrizio Zampolli

Abstract

We examine how changes in fiscal deficits affect near-term future inflation in a panel of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Using a novel method for quantile panel regressions with fixed effects, we find that an increase in the fiscal deficit has highly non-linear effects on inflation - that is, a larger impact on upside tail risks than on average inflation. These effects are substantially larger in EMDEs than in advanced economies. We then show that an increase in the fiscal deficit raises the risk of future currency depreciation which magnifies the initial inflation response. This external channel is closely related to sovereign risk, being greater when the share of sovereign debt in foreign currency is large or when a sizeable share of sovereign debt is held by foreign residents. Finally, we find that the effects of fiscal deficits on future inflation are strongly attenuated in inflation targeting regimes and also influenced by constraints on monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Valerie Boctor & Aaron Mehrotra & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Fiscal sources of inflation risk in EMDEs: the role of the external channel," BIS Working Papers 1110, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1110.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work1110.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mauro, Paolo & Romeu, Rafael & Binder, Ariel & Zaman, Asad, 2015. "A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 55-70.
    2. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2019. "Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30657.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
    4. Ha,Jongrim & Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2019. "Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8761, The World Bank.
    5. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1103-1129, September.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & Mickey D. Levy, 2021. "Do enlarged fiscal deficits cause inflation? The historical record," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 59-83, February.
    7. Laeven, Luc & Valencia, Fabian, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: A Timely Update in COVID-19 Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 14569, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Tommaso Monacelli & Roberto Perotti, 2010. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate and Traded Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 437-461, May.
    9. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
    10. Alekhina, Victoriia & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2018. "Impact of World Oil Prices on an Energy Exporting Economy Including Monetary Policy," ADBI Working Papers 828, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
    12. Lin, Hsin-Yi & Chu, Hao-Pang, 2013. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 214-233.
    13. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2013. "Overcoming the Fear of Free Falling: Monetary Policy Graduation in Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Cornelia Holthausen & George G Kaufman & Manfred Kremer (ed.), The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability How Has It Changed?, chapter 6, pages 105-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    15. World Bank, 2021. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2021," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34710.
    16. Alan Greenspan, 2004. "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 33-40, May.
    17. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    18. World Bank, 2021. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2021," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 35647.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Casiraghi, Marco & Gelos, Gaston & Harrison, Olamide & Kamber, Gunes, 2024. "Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    3. Kose M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge Franziska & Sugawara Naotaka, 2022. "A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 233-268, December.
    4. Jonida Bollano & Delina Ibrahimaj, 2015. "Current Account Determinats in Central Eastern European Countries," IHEID Working Papers 22-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    5. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    6. Serhan Cevik & Tianle Zhu, 2020. "Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence And Inflation In The Caribbean," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 375-388, April.
    7. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Guénette, Justin Damien & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "Is a Global Recession Imminent?," MPRA Paper 114627, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kilic Celik, Sinem & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Ruch, Franz, 2023. "Potential Growth: A Global Database," CEPR Discussion Papers 18061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Mawejje, Joseph & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2022. "The determinants and cyclicality of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from East Africa," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 55-70.
    11. YUAN, Chunming & CHEN, Ruo, 2015. "Policy transmissions, external imbalances, and their impacts: Cross-country evidence from BRICS," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-24.
    12. Vesna Stojcevska & Mite Miteski, 2016. "Assessment of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Current Account – the Twin Deficit Hypothesis in the Case of Macedonian Economy," Working Papers 2016-01, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    13. Antoine Goujard, 2017. "Cross‐Country Spillovers from Fiscal Consolidations," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 219-267, June.
    14. Mr. Serhan Cevik & João Tovar Jalles, 2023. "Eye of the Storm: The Impact of Climate Shocks on Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 2023/087, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Britta Gehrke & Fang Yao, 2016. "Persistence and volatility of real exchange rates: the role of supply shocks revisited," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    17. Benjamin Born & Francesco D’Ascanio & Gernot J. Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2024. "Mr. Keynes Meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(5), pages 1642-1683.
    18. Hugo S. Gonçalves & Sérgio Moro, 2023. "On the economic impacts of COVID‐19: A text mining literature analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 375-394, February.
    19. Stephen Nicar, 2015. "International Spillovers from U.S. Fiscal Policy Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1081-1097, November.
    20. A. S. Benetrix & P. R. Lane, 2013. "Fiscal Shocks and the Real Exchange Rate," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 6-37, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal deficit; inflation; exchange rate depreciation; sovereign risk; emerging market and developing economies; original sin; inflation targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.