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Recovery of 1933

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Abstract

When Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard in April 1933, he converted government debt from a tax-backed claim to gold to a claim to dollars, opening the door to unbacked fiscal expansion. Roosevelt followed a state-contingent fiscal rule that ran nominal-debt-financed primary deficits until the price level rose and economic activity recovered. Theory suggests that government spending multipliers can be substantially larger when fiscal expansions are unbacked than when they are tax-backed. VAR estimates using data on "emergency" unbacked spending and "ordinary" backed spending confirm this prediction and find that primary deficits made quantitatively important contributions to raising both the price level and real GNP after 1933. VAR evidence does not support the conventional monetary explanation that gold revaluation and gold inflows, which raised the monetary base, drove the recovery independently of fiscal actions.

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  • Margaret M. Jacobson & Eric M. Leeper & Bruce Preston, 2023. "Recovery of 1933," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-32
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2023.032
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    2. John H. Cochrane, 2020. "Strategic Review and Beyond: Rethinking Monetary Policy and Independence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(2), pages 99-119, May.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & Andrew T. Levin & Mickey D. Levy, 2020. "Incorporating Scenario Analysis into the Federal Reserve’s Policy Strategy and Communications," NBER Working Papers 27369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Luca Pensieroso & Romain Restout, 2021. "The Gold Standard and the International Dimension of the Great Depression," Working Papers of BETA 2021-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    5. John Cochrane, 2022. "A fiscal theory of monetary policy with partially repaid long-term debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 1-21, July.
    6. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Billi , Roberto M. & Walsh, Carl E., 2022. "Seemingly Irresponsible but Welfare Improving Fiscal Policy at the Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 410, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2020. "The Economics of Helicopter Money," Working Papers 8/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    9. Barry Eichengreen, 2020. "From Commodity to Fiat and Now to Crypto: What Does History Tell Us?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Bernard Yeung (ed.), DIGITAL CURRENCY ECONOMICS AND POLICY, chapter 4, pages 17-39, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Karau, Sören, 2020. "Buried in the vaults of central banks: Monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 63/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Choongryul Yang, 2023. "Redistribution and the monetary‐fiscal policy mix," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(3), pages 817-853, July.
    12. Michael D. Bordo & Mickey D. Levy, 2020. "Do Enlarged Fiscal Deficits Cause Inflation: The Historical Record," NBER Working Papers 28195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Bernardo Candia & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2021. "Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era," Working Papers 21-11r, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 08 Nov 2021.
    14. David S. Miller, 2021. "A Monetary-Fiscal Theory of Sudden Inflations and Currency Crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-057, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great depression; Monetary-fiscal interactions; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Government debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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