Modeling sparse longitudinal data on Riemannian manifolds

Modern data collection often entails longitudinal repeated measurements that assume values on a Riemannian manifold. Analyzing such longitudinal Riemannian data is challenging, because of both the sparsity of the observations and the nonlinear manifold constraint. Addressing this challenge, we propose an intrinsic functional principal component analysis for longitudinal Riemannian data. Information is pooled across subjects by estimating the mean curve with local Fréchet regression and smoothing the covariance structure of the linearized data on tangent spaces around the mean. Dimension reduction and imputation of the manifold‐valued trajectories are achieved by utilizing the leading principal components and applying best linear unbiased prediction. We show that the proposed mean and covariance function estimates achieve state‐of‐the‐art convergence rates. For illustration, we study the development of brain connectivity in a longitudinal cohort of Alzheimer's disease and normal participants by modeling the connectivity on the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices with the affine‐invariant metric. In a second illustration for irregularly recorded longitudinal emotion compositional data for unemployed workers, we show that the proposed method leads to nicely interpretable eigenfunctions and principal component scores. Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database.