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Dynamics of rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines

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  • Christine D. Lasco
  • Robert J. Myers
  • Richard H. Bernsten

Abstract

Rice trade liberalization in the Philippines should decrease domestic rice prices impacting both agricultural wages and the welfare of agricultural wage earners. This study examines the short‐run and long‐run relationship between rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines using a neoclassical wage determination model. Three empirical frameworks are used—a cointegration/error correction framework, which assumes nonstationary variables in long‐run equilibrium, a first difference model that assumes nonstationary variables but no long‐run equilibrium, and an OLS framework that assumes the model variables are stationary. Conclusions are reasonably robust across the three empirical frameworks with wages adjusting positively to rice price changes with a short‐run elasticity of 0.29 to 0.57, and a long‐run elasticity of 0.70 to 1.0 in preferred models. An analysis of welfare implications suggests that although households that are heavily reliant on agricultural wages for income will be adversely affected by rice price decreases, other households will benefit.

Suggested Citation

  • Christine D. Lasco & Robert J. Myers & Richard H. Bernsten, 2008. "Dynamics of rice prices and agricultural wages in the Philippines," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(3), pages 339-348, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:38:y:2008:i:3:p:339-348
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00304.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    2. Rashid, Shahidur, 2002. "Dynamics of agricultural wage and rice price in Bangladesh," MSSD discussion papers 44, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2004. "Rice Reforms and Poverty in the Philippines: A CGE Analysis," Discussion Papers DP 2004-14, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    4. David, Cristina C., 1997. "Agricultural policy and the WTO Agreement: The Philippine Case," Discussion Papers DP 1997-13, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:lic:licosd:39217 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. David Dawe, 2014. "Transmission of global food prices, supply response and impacts on the poor," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 5, pages 100-121, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    4. Briones, Roehlano M., 2013. "Agriculture, Rural Employment, and Inclusive Growth," Discussion Papers DP 2013-39, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    5. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Was the Global Food Crisis Really a Crisis?: Simulations versus Self-Reporting," Research briefs 17, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2014. "Short- and long-run impacts of food price changes on poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7011, The World Bank.
    7. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D'une crise à l'autre : mesurer l'impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Working Papers hal-00637608, HAL.
    8. Hanan G. Jacoby, 2016. "Food Prices, Wages, And Welfare In Rural India," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 159-176, January.
    9. Hassan, F., 2018. "Farm Wage and Rice Price Dynamics in Bangladesh," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277415, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Kym Anderson & Maros Ivanic & William J. Martin, 2014. "Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 311-339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Derek D. Headey, 2013. "The Impact of the Global Food Crisis on Self-Assessed Food Security," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 27(1), pages 1-27.
    12. Balié, Jean & Minot, Nicholas & Valera, Harold Glenn A., 2021. "Distributional impacts of the rice tariffication policy in the Philippines," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 289-306.
    13. Susanne Fricke & Lodovico Muratori, 2017. "Spatial price transmission and trade policies: new evidence for agricultural products from selected sub-Saharan African countries with high frequency data," Working Papers 5/17, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    14. Dawe, David & Maltsoglou, Irini, 2014. "Marketing margins and the welfare analysis of food price shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-55.
    15. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D’une crise à l’autre : Mesurer l’impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Larefi Working Papers 201106, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    16. Md. Fuad Hassan & Lukas Kornher, 2022. "Farm wage and Rice Price dynamics in Bangladesh," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(1), pages 127-146, February.
    17. Delphine Boutin, 2011. "D’une crise à l’autre : Mesurer l’impact des prix alimentaires sur la pauvreté," Larefi Working Papers 1106, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    18. Headey, Derek D. & Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane & Worku, Ibrahim & Dereje, Mekdim & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum, 2012. "Urban wage behavior and food price inflation: the case of Ethiopia [Working Paper]:," ESSP working papers 41, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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