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Transitional credit modelling and its relationship to market value at risk: an Australian sectoral perspective

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  • David E. Allen
  • Robert Powell

Abstract

Internal credit risk modelling is important for banks for the calculation of capital adequacy in terms of the Basel Accords, and for the management of sectoral exposure. We examine Credit Value at Risk (VaR), Conditional Credit Value at Risk (Credit CVaR) and the relationship between market and credit risk. Significant association is found between different Credit CVaR methods, and between market and credit risk. Simpler Credit CVaR methods are found to be viable alternatives to more complex methodology. The relationship between market and credit risk is used to develop a new model that allows banks to incorporate industry risk into transition modelling, without macroeconomic analysis.

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  • David E. Allen & Robert Powell, 2009. "Transitional credit modelling and its relationship to market value at risk: an Australian sectoral perspective," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(3), pages 425-444, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:49:y:2009:i:3:p:425-444
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-629X.2009.00294.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Allen, David E & Powell, Robert, 2008. "Structural Credit Modelling and Its Relationship to Market Value at Risk: An Australian Sectoral Perspective," MPRA Paper 47206, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    4. Angus Campbell & Daniel R. Smith, 2022. "An empirical investigation of the quality of value‐at‐risk disclosure in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 469-491, March.
    5. Minhaz-Ul-Haq, 2021. "Measuring Market Risk of Commercial Banks Implementing VaR with Historical Simulation Approach," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(4), pages 1-4.
    6. Vo, D.H. & Tran, N.P. & Duong, T.N.-T. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "Risk Analysis of Energy in Vietnam," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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    8. BALTES Nicolae & DRAGOE Alexandra-Gabriela-Maria, 2017. "Estimating The Return Of The Financial Titles Of The Companies From The Manufacturing Industry, Listed On The Bucharest Stock Exchange," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 69(3), pages 19-28, August.
    9. D. E. Allen & A. K. Singh & R. Powell, 2012. "A Gourmet's delight: CAViaR and the Australian stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(15), pages 1493-1498, October.
    10. Vo, D.H. & Pham, B.V.-N. & Pham, T.V.-T. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in an Emerging Market," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    11. Henry Asante Antwi & Zhou Lulin & Ethel Yiranbon & James Onuche Ayegba & Mary-Ann Yebaoh & Emmanuel Osei Bonsu, 2014. "Risk Modelling in Healthcare Markets: a Comparative Analysis of three Risk Measurement Approaches," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 271-281, April.
    12. Allen, D.E. & Kramadibrata, A.R. & Powell, R.J. & Singh, A.K., 2013. "Modelling tail credit risk using transition matrices," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 67-75.
    13. Ngoc Phu Tran & Thang Cong Nguyen & Duc Hong Vo & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Market Risk Analysis of Energy in Vietnam," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-13, November.
    14. R.J. Powell, 2017. "New perspectives on bank risk in Malaysia," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1326217-132, January.
    15. Searat Ali & Benjamin Liu & Jen Je Su, 2022. "Does corporate governance have a differential effect on downside and upside risk?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(9-10), pages 1642-1695, October.
    16. Katherine Uylangco & Siqiwen Li, 2016. "An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(4), pages 699-718, November.
    17. Allen, D.E. & Powell, R.J. & Singh, A.K., 2016. "Take it to the limit: Innovative CVaR applications to extreme credit risk measurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 465-475.
    18. Millicent Chang & Andrew B. Jackson & Marvin Wee, 2018. "A review of research on regulation changes in the Asia‐Pacific region," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(3), pages 635-667, September.

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