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Copula-based factor model for credit risk analysis

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  • Lu, Meng-Jou
  • Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl

Abstract

A standard quantitative method to access credit risk employs a factor model based on joint multivariate normal distribution properties. By extending a one-factor Gaussian copula model to make a more accurate default forecast, this paper proposes to incorporate a state-dependent recovery rate into the conditional factor loading, and model them by sharing a unique common factor. The common factor governs the default rate and recovery rate simultaneously and creates their association implicitly. In accordance with Basel III, this paper shows that the tendency of default is more governed by systematic risk rather than idiosyncratic risk during a hectic period. Among the models considered, the one with random factor loading and a state-dependent recovery rate turns out to be the most superior on the default prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Meng-Jou & Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2015. "Copula-based factor model for credit risk analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-042, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2015-042
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor Model; Conditional Factor Loading; State-Dependent Recovery Rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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