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The Dynamics Of House Prices And Fiscal Policy Shocks In Turkey

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  • Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım
  • Özge Filiz Yağcıbaşı

Abstract

This study examines the interaction between house prices and gov-ernment spending, mortgage interest rates, and gross domestic product in Turkey. The ARDL bounds test approach is applied to quarterly data covering the 2010:1–2017:4 period. Findings indicate that there is a statistically significant long-run and short-run cointegration between the two house price indexes and government spending, mortgage rates, and GDP. An increase in government spending has a statistically sig-nificant positive effect on house prices. The study also indicates that mortgage interest rate and GDP have a statistically signifi-cant effect on house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım & Özge Filiz Yağcıbaşı, 2019. "The Dynamics Of House Prices And Fiscal Policy Shocks In Turkey," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 39-60, January –.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:64:y:2019:i:220:p:39-59
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House Prices; Government Spending; Turkish Economy; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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