IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v06n012003p.63-74.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union

Author

Abstract

This study analyses the dynamic effects of specific macroeconomic variables (i.e. housing loan rates, inflation and employment) on the price of new houses sold in Greece. An error correction vector autoregressive (ECVAR) model is used to model the impact of the macroeconomic variables on real housing prices. Variance decompositions show that the housing loan rate is the variable with the highest explanatory power over the variation of real housing prices, followed by inflation and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Apergis, 2003. "Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 63-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:06:n:01:2003:p.63-74
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/no-6-housing.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manchester, Joyce, 1987. "Inflation and housing demand: A new perspective," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 105-125, January.
    2. Elaine Worzala & Alexandra Bernasek, 1996. "European Economic Integration and Commercial Real Estate Markets: An Analysis of Trends in Market Determinants," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 159-181, January.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-1138, October.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    7. Barton A. Smith & William P. Tesarek, 1991. "House Prices and Regional Real Estate Cycles: Market Adjustments in Houston," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 396-416, September.
    8. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
    9. Baffoe-Bonnie, John, 1998. "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-197, September.
    10. Harris, Jack C, 1989. "The Effect of Real Rates of Interest on Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 47-60, February.
    11. Schwab, Robert M., 1983. "Real and nominal interest rates and the demand for housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 181-195, March.
    12. Muellbauer, John, 1992. "Anglo-German differences in housing market dynamics : The role of institutions and macro economic policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 539-548, April.
    13. Patric H. Hendershott, 1980. "Real User Costs and the Demand for Single-Family Housing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 401-452.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicholas Apergis, 2003. "Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors: Prospects within the European Monetary Union," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 63-47.
    2. N. Apergis & A. Rezitis, 2003. "Housing prices and macroeconomic factors in Greece: prospects within the EMU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(12), pages 799-804.
    3. Pami Dua, 2008. "Analysis of Consumers’ Perceptions of Buying Conditions for Houses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 335-350, November.
    4. Hernán Enríquez Sierra & Jacobo Campo Robledo & Antonio Avendaño Arosemena, 2015. "Relaciones regionales en los precios de vivienda nueva en Colombia," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 25-47, June.
    5. Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2016. "On the macroeconomic determinants of the housing market in Greece: a VECM approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 387-409, July.
    6. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
    7. Utku Akseki & Abdurrahman Nazif Çatık & Barış Gök, 2014. "A regime-dependent investigation of the impact of macroeconomic variables on the housing market activity in Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 1081-1090.
    8. Hussain Mohammed A. Al Obaid, 2020. "Factors Determining Housing Demand in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 150-157.
    9. Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2012. "What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1064-1069.
    10. Gary John Rangel & Jason Wei Jian Ng, 2017. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Singapore Private Residential Prices: A Markov-Switching Approach," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 15-31.
    11. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "United Kingdom: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/081, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Richard Meese & Nancy Wallace, 2003. "House Price Dynamics and Market Fundamentals: The Parisian Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1027-1045, May.
    14. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 0018, European Central Bank.
    15. Duran, Hasan Engin & Özdoğan, Hilal, 2020. "Asymmetries across regional housing markets in Turkey," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    16. Michel DIMOU & Alexandra SCHAFFAR & Zhihong CHEN & Shihe FU, 2008. "LA CROISSANCE URBAINE CHINOISE RECONSIDeReE," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 109-131.
    17. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
    18. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Muhammad Illyas & Muqqadas Rahman & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 184-192, April.
    19. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    20. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing prices; macroeconomic factors; ECVAR model; Greece;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:06:n:01:2003:p.63-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.