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Is there a Housing Bubble in Turkey?

Author

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  • Coskun Yener

    (PhD Capital Market Board of Turkey Turkey)

  • Jadevicius Arvydas

    (PhD Royal Agricultural University United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)

Abstract

There was a notable housing price inflation in aggregate/local levels in Turkey during the last few years. Although the country’s economic fundamentals remain strong, the probability of a housing bubble is a heated debate among market participants. This timely investigation brings greater clarity to whether the Turkish housing market is in a bubble. The study uses a multi-strand approach to dissect the bubble over the period of Jan. 2010 - Dec. 2014. First, monthly/annual price-to-income and monthly price-to-rent ratios are examined for the national Turkish as well as regional Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara housing markets. Second, an extended CASE and SHILLER (2003) model is applied assessing the interdependence between housing prices and a series of explanatory variables. Lastly, the Right Tail Augmented Dickey-Fuller (Rtadf) test is performed to support the overall analysis. This study finds that neither affordability ratios nor regression estimates support the existence of the bubble in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Coskun Yener & Jadevicius Arvydas, 2017. "Is there a Housing Bubble in Turkey?," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 48-73, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:remava:v:25:y:2017:i:1:p:48-73:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/remav-2017-0003
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    2. Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım & Özge Filiz Yağcıbaşı, 2019. "The Dynamics Of House Prices And Fiscal Policy Shocks In Turkey," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 39-60, January –.
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    4. Evren Ceritoglu & Seyit Mumin Cilasun & Ufuk Demiroglu & Aytul Ganioglu, 2019. "An analysis to detect exuberance and implosion in regional house prices in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 19(2), pages 67-82.
    5. Galina An & Charles Becker & Enoch Cheng, 2021. "Bubbling Away: Forecasting Real Estate Prices, Rents, and Bubbles in a Transition Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 263-317, June.

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