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Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model

Author

Listed:
  • Vittorio Peretti

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Roula Inglesi-Lotz

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper investigates the existence of spillovers from the housing sector onto consumption and the interest rate for South Africa using a time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. In this regard, we estimate a three-variable TVP-VAR model comprising of real consumption growth rate, the nominal three-months Treasury bill rate and the growth rate of real house prices. The results suggest that, in general, consumption responded positively to a house price shock over the entire sample, with the effect being stronger post financial liberalization. On the other hand, a positive delayed response of nominal interest rate followed a house price shock, with the effect being weaker post financial liberalization until the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) moved to the official inflation-targeting regime. The effect of house prices on both consumption and interest rate was understandably weak during the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Vittorio Peretti & Rangan Gupta & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201216, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201216
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    Cited by:

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    6. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 226-243, April.
    7. Alexander Zimper, 2014. "The minimal confidence levels of Basel capital regulation," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 129-143, April.
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    10. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1133-1154, November.
    11. He, Yongda & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Time-varying effects of cyclical fluctuations in China's energy industry on the macro economy and carbon emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1102-1112.
    12. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    13. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Evolution of Monetary Policy in the US: The Role of Asset Prices," Working Papers 201343, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Rangan Gupta & Xiaojin Sun, 2020. "Housing market spillovers in South Africa: evidence from an estimated small open economy DSGE model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2309-2332, May.
    15. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2015. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 176-196, August.
    16. Yener Coskun & Burak Sencer Atasoy & Giacomo Morri & Esra Alp, 2018. "Wealth Effects on Household Final Consumption: Stock and Housing Market Channels," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-32, June.
    17. Chi-Wei Su & Xiao-Cui Yin & Ran Tao, 2018. "How do housing prices affect consumption in China? New evidence from a continuous wavelet analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-14, September.
    18. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Components of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Predictability of US Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantile Approach," Working Papers 201639, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Working Papers 201233, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Alain Kaninda & Wendy Nyakabawo & Aarifah Razak, 2013. "House Price, Stock Price and Consumption in South Africa: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 201309, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Inference; Consumption; House Price; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Monetary Policy; Structural Vector Autoregression; Stochastic Volatility; Time-Varying Paremeter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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