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An Economic Indicator for the State of the Economy in the Southeastern U.S

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  • Miller, Tom W.
  • Sabbarese, Donald

Abstract

A state space model is constructed so that a state variable representing the unobservable state of the economy is estimated from information on new orders, production, employment, supplier delivery time, and finished inventory obtained from the purchasing managers’ sur-vey for Georgia. This state variable captures the co-movements of the time series used in its construction and serves as an economic indicator for Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Caro-lina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Even though this economic indicator is estimated from information from the purchasing managers’ survey on manufacturing activity for just Geor-gia, it produces reasonable forecasts for the real growth rates of the gross domestic products of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee for 1991 through 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Miller, Tom W. & Sabbarese, Donald, 2012. "An Economic Indicator for the State of the Economy in the Southeastern U.S," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 42(01), pages 1-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jrapmc:143761
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.143761
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Watson, Philip & Cooke, Stephen & Kay, David & Alward, Greg, 2015. "A Method for Improving Economic Contribution Studies for Regional Analysis," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 45(01).

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