IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/joaaec/155430.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Econometric Forecasting of Irrigation Water Demand Conserves a Valuable Natural Resource

Author

Listed:
  • Banerjee, Swagata (Ban)
  • Obembe, Babatunde A.

Abstract

Natural causes (such as droughts), non-natural causes (such as competing uses), and government policies limit the supply of water for agriculture in general and irrigating crops in particular. Under such reduced water supply scenarios, existing physical models reduce irrigation proportionally among crops in the farmer’s portfolio, disregarding temporal changes in economic and/or institutional conditions. Hence, changes in crop mix resulting from expectations about risks and returns are ignored. A method is developed that considers those changes and accounts for economic substitution and expansion effects. Forecasting studies based on this method with surface water in Georgia and Alabama demonstrate the relative strength of econometric modeling vis-a`-vis physical methods. Results from a study using this method for ground water in Mississippi verify the robustness of those findings. Results from policy induced simulation scenarios indicate water savings of 12% to 27% using the innovative method developed. Although better irrigation water demand forecasting in crop production was the key objective of this pilot project, conservation of a valuable natural resource (water) has turned out to be a key consequence.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, Swagata (Ban) & Obembe, Babatunde A., 2013. "Econometric Forecasting of Irrigation Water Demand Conserves a Valuable Natural Resource," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45, pages 1-12, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:155430
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.155430
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/155430/files/jaae453ip16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.155430?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James S. Eales & Brian K. Engel & Robert J. Hauser & Sarahelen R. Thompson, 1990. "Grain Price Expectations of Illinois Farmers and Grain Merchandisers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 701-708.
    2. Banerjee, Swagata “Ban” & Tareen, Irfan Y. & Gunter, Lewell F. & Bramblett, Jimmy & Wetzstein, Michael E., 2007. "Forecasting Irrigation Water Demand: A Case Study on the Flint River Basin in Georgia," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 641-655, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boyer, Christopher N. & Larson, James A. & Roberts, Roland K. & McClure, Angela T. & Tyler, Donald D. & Smith, S. Aaron, 2014. "Probability of Irrigated Corn Being Profitable in a Humid Region," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162470, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Xu, Qin & Fox, Glenn & McKenney, Dan & Parkin, Gary, 2019. "A theoretical economic model of the demand for irrigation water," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    2. Lewis T. Cunningham & B. Wade Brorsen & Kim B. Anderson & Emílio Tostão, 2008. "Gender differences in marketing styles," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(1), pages 1-7, January.
    3. Umarov, Alisher & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2005. "Farmers' Subjective Yield Distributions: Calibration and Implications for Crop Insurance Valuation," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19396, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Lea-Rachel Kosnik, 2008. "Refusing to budge: a confirmatory bias in decision making?," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 7(2), pages 193-214, November.
    5. Coble, Keith H. & Barnett, Barry J., 1999. "The Role Of Research In Producer Risk Management," Professional Papers 15803, Mississippi State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    6. Banerjee, Swagata (Ban) & Martin, Steven W., 2008. "Econometric versus Engineering Prediction of Water Demand and Value for Irrigation," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6165, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1996. "Improving the Relevance of Research on Price Forecasting and Marketing Strategies," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 68-75, April.
    8. Ubilava, David & Barnett, Barry J. & Coble, Keith H. & Harri, Ardian, 2011. "The SURE Program and Its Interaction with Other Federal Farm Programs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1-19.
    9. Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1999. "Post-Harvest Grain Storing And Hedging With Efficient Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 1-24, December.
    10. Pena-Levano, Luis M. & Ramirez, Octavio & Renteria-Pinon, Mario, 2015. "Efficiency Gains in Commodity Forecasting with High Volatility in Prices using Different Levels of Data Aggregation," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205740, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Kastens, Terry L. & Jones, Rodney D. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1998. "Futures-Based Price Forecasts For Agricultural Producers And Businesses," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-14, July.
    12. Banerjee, Swagata (Ban), 2013. "Comparing Results of Irrigation Water Demand Forecasting from Three Southern States," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 143062, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    13. Feil, J.-H. & Anastassiadis, F. & Mußhoff, O. & Schilling, P., 2015. "Analysing Farmers’ Use of Price Hedging Instruments: An Experimental Approach," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 50, March.
    14. Yoon, Byung-Sam & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2002. "Market Inversion in Commodity Futures Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 459-476, December.
    15. Sherrick, Bruce J., 2002. "The Accuracy Of Producers' Probability Beliefs: Evidence And Implications For Insurance Valuation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, July.
    16. Shaik, Saleem & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O. & Baquet, Alan E. & Patrick, George F., 2008. "Crop Revenue and Yield Insurance Demand: A Subjective Probability Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Egelkraut, Thorsten M. & Garcia, Philip & Pennings, Joost M.E. & Sherrick, Bruce J., 2006. "Producers' Yield and Yield Risk: Perceptions versus Reality and Crop Insurance Use," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21369, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1993. "Expectations of Cattle Feeding Investors in Feeder Cattle Placements," Staff Papers 118159, Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    19. Anderson, John D. & Barnett, Barry J. & Coble, Keith H., 2009. "Impacts of the SURE Standing Disaster Assistance Program on Producer Risk Management and Crop Insurance Programs," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49304, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1998. "Perceptions Of Marketing Strategies: Producers Versus Extension Economists," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:155430. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.