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The Distributional Behavior Of Futures Price Spreads

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  • Kim, MinKyoung
  • Leuthold, Raymond M.

Abstract

The distributional behavior of futures price spreads is examined for four commodities: corn, live cattle, gold and T-bonds. Remarkably different results are found over commodities, time period, and sample size. Actual spread changes for the smaller sample size of gold and T-bonds and for corn produce more normal distributions for weekly than for daily differencing intervals, while all live cattle spreads for actual changes are normally distributed. However, the larger sample size of both gold and T-bonds and the relative spread changes for corn and live cattle do not become more normally distributed under temporal aggregation of the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, MinKyoung & Leuthold, Raymond M., 2000. "The Distributional Behavior Of Futures Price Spreads," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:15399
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.15399
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hall, Joyce A. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1989. "The Distribution of Futures Prices: A Test of the Stable Paretian and Mixture of Normals Hypotheses," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 105-116, March.
    2. Mann, Jitendar S. & Heifner, Richard G., 1976. "The Distribution of Shortrun Commodity Price Movements," Technical Bulletins 158107, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    4. Geoffrey Poitras, 1990. "The distribution of gold futures spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(6), pages 643-659, December.
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