IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jlaare/30887.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Value Of Enso Information To Agriculture: Consideration Of Event Strength And Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Chi-Chung
  • McCarl, Bruce A.

Abstract

The agricultural value of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase knowledge is measured in a value-of-information framework using economic models. We examine the value of considering the full distribution of ENSO phase strength effects as opposed to average ENSO phase strength effects, as well as the implications of considering ENSO impacts on the rest of the world (ROW). A stochastic U.S. agricultural sector model linked with a global trade model is used to assess the value of ENSO phase information. When the full distribution of ENSO phase strength is considered, the value of phase information increases twofold with respect to the average ENSO effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Chi-Chung & McCarl, Bruce A., 2000. "The Value Of Enso Information To Agriculture: Consideration Of Event Strength And Trade," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30887
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.30887
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/30887/files/25020368.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.30887?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Spreen, Thomas H., 2006. "Price Endogenous Mathematical Programming Models and Trade Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 249-253, August.
    2. Lambert, D.K. & McCarl, B.A. & He, Q. & Kaylen, M.S. & Rosenthal, W. & Chang, C.C. & Nayda, W.I., 1995. "Uncertain Yields in Sectoral Welfare Analysis: An Application to Global Warming," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 423-436, December.
    3. James W. Mjelde & Harvey S.J. Hill & John F. Griffiths, 1998. "A Review of Current Evidence on Climate Forecasts and Their Economic Effects in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1089-1095.
    4. Bruce A. McCarl & Thomas H. Spreen, 1980. "Price Endogenous Mathematical Programming As a Tool for Sector Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(1), pages 87-102.
    5. Roger D. Norton & Gerhard W. Schiefer, 1980. "Agricultural sector programming models: A review," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 7(3), pages 229-265.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lan-Fen Chu & Michael McAleer & Chi-Chung Chen, 2012. "How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 1, pages 1-12.
    2. Elizabeth Kopits & Alex L. Marten & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Moving Forward with Incorporating "Catastrophic" Climate Change into Policy Analysis," NCEE Working Paper Series 201301, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jan 2013.
    3. Uwe A. Schneider & Bruce A. McCarl, 2006. "Appraising agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation potentials: effects of alternative assumptions," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 35(3), pages 277-287, November.
    4. Schneider, Uwe A. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2005. "Implications of a Carbon-Based Energy Tax for U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 265-279, October.
    5. Kung, Chih-Chun, 2019. "A stochastic evaluation of economic and environmental effects of Taiwan's biofuel development under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1051-1064.
    6. Yaling Li & Fujin Yi & Yanjun Wang & Richard Gudaj, 2019. "The Value of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Forecasts to China’s Agriculture," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-23, August.
    7. Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2006. "Animal Disease Pre-Event Preparedness versus Post-Event Response: When Is It Economic to Protect?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 327-336, August.
    8. Massimo Peri, 2017. "Climate variability and the volatility of global maize and soybean prices," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(4), pages 673-683, August.
    9. Kung, Chih-Chun & Wu, Tao, 2021. "Influence of water allocation on bioenergy production under climate change: A stochastic mathematical programming approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. Zhu, Yichen & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2021. "Climate Anomalies and Its Impact on U.S. Corn and Soybean Prices," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315271, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Davinson Stev Abril‐Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2020. "Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1059-1086, October.
    12. Kung, Chih-Chun & Zhang, Ning & Choi, Yongrok & Xiong, Kai & Yu, Jiangli, 2019. "Effectiveness of crop residuals in ethanol and pyrolysis-based electricity production: A stochastic analysis under uncertain climate impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 267-276.
    13. Mario Andres Fernandez & Pei Huang & Bruce McCarl & Vikram Mehta, 2016. "Value of decadal climate variability information for agriculture in the Missouri River basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 517-533, December.
    14. Chi-Chung Chen & Bruce McCarl & Ching-Cheng Chang, 2012. "Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 543-560, February.
    15. Heng-Chi Lee & Bruce McCarl & Uwe Schneider & Chi-Chung Chen, 2007. "Leakage and Comparative Advantage Implications of Agricultural Participation in Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 471-494, May.
    16. Villoria, Nelson B. & Delgado, Michael, 2017. "Worldwide Crop Supply Responses to El Niño Southern Oscillation," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258564, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Kung, Chih-Chun & Cao, Xiaoyong & Choi, Yongrok & Kung, Shan-Shan, 2019. "A stochastic analysis of cropland utilization and resource allocation under climate change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    18. Rubas, Debra J. & Mjelde, James W. & Love, H. Alan, 2003. "Wheat Trade And The Adoption Of Enso-Based Forecasts: Different Scenarios," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22160, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Chu, L. & McAleer, M.J. & Chen, C-C., 2009. "How Volatile is ENSO?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    20. Ubilava, David & Orlowski, Jan, 2016. "The Predictive Content of Climate Anomalies for Agricultural Production: Does ENSO Really Matter?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236281, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Peri, Massimo, 2015. "Cliamte Variability and Agricultural Price volatility: the case of corn and soybeans," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212623, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    22. Hill, Harvey S.J. & Mjelde, James W., 2002. "Challenges And Opportunities Provided By Seasonal Climate Forecasts: A Literature Review," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1-30, December.
    23. Huang, Pei & McCarl, Bruce A., 2014. "Estimating Decadal Climate Variability Effects on Crop Yields: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169828, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Butt, Tanveer A. & Mccarl, Bruce A., 2005. "An analytical framework for making long -term projections of undernourishment: A case study for agriculture in Mali," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 434-451, August.
    2. David Walker, 2014. "The Economic Potential for Forest-Based Carbon Sequestration under Different Emissions Targets and Accounting Schemes," Working Papers 2014.02, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    3. Callaway, J.M., 2000. "Assessing the Costs and Market Impacts of Carbon Sequestration, Climate Change and Acid Rain," Other publications TiSEM c58adec9-1535-46cf-b213-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Yongxi Ma & Lu Zhang & Shixiong Song & Shuao Yu, 2022. "Impacts of Energy Price on Agricultural Production, Energy Consumption, and Carbon Emission in China: A Price Endogenous Partial Equilibrium Model Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-14, March.
    5. Lambert, David K. & McCarl, Bruce A. & He, Quifen & Kaylen, Michael S. & Rosenthal, Wesley & Chang, Ching-Cheng & Nayda, W.I., 1995. "Uncertain Yields In Sectoral Welfare Analysis: An Application To Global Warming," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Arifullah, Shahnaz A. & Önal, Hayri & Chishti, Anwar F., 2010. "Effects of technological progress on consumers’ and producers’ welfare: a case study for Pakistan Punjab," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 49(3), pages 1-13.
    7. Langyintuo, Augustine S., 2010. "Grain Distribution in Ghana under Imperfectly Competitive Market Conditions," 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa 96166, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    8. Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Cost-Effectiveness of Lignocellulose Biorefineries and their Impact on the Deciduous Wood Markets in Germany," FCN Working Papers 8/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    9. Uwe A. Schneider & Bruce A. McCarl, 2003. "Measuring Abatement Potentials When Multiple Change Is Present: The Case Of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation In U.S. Agriculture And Forestry," Working Papers FNU-23, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2002.
    10. Oliver, Anthony & Khanna, Madhu, 2013. "Renewable Energy Policies for the Electricity, Transportation, and Agricultural Sectors: Complements or Substitutes," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150406, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Oyewumi, Olubukola Ayodeju & Jooste, Andre & Britz, Wolfgang & van Schalkwyk, Herman D., 2008. "Trade Liberalization in the South African Livestock Industry: implications for rural development," 2007 Second International Conference, August 20-22, 2007, Accra, Ghana 51997, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    12. McCarl, Bruce A., 1992. "Mathematical Programming For Resource Policy Appraisal Under Multiple Objectives," Working Papers 11888, Environmental and Natural Resources Policy Training Project.
    13. Alig, Ralph J. & Adams, Darius M. & McCarl, Bruce A., 1998. "Impacts Of Incorporating Land Exchanges Between Forestry And Agriculture In Sector Models," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(2), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Heimlich, Ralph E. & Wiebe, Keith D. & Claassen, Roger & Gadsby, Dwight M. & House, Robert M., 1998. "Wetlands and Agriculture: Private Interests and Public Benefits," Agricultural Economic Reports 34043, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    15. Onal, Hayri & Chen, Xiaoguang & Khanna, Madhu & Huang, Haixiao, 2009. "Mathematical Programming Modeling of Agricultural Supply Response," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49469, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Ward, Frank A., 1985. "Income Distribution Issues And Natural Resource Policy: Welfare Effects Of Nonfederal Water Plans," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 1-5, December.
    17. Hof, John G. & Loomis, John B., 1983. "A Recreation Optimization Model Based On The Travel Cost Method," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, July.
    18. Gaasland, Ivar, 2009. "Agriculture versus fish - Norway in WTO," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 393-397, August.
    19. Kung, Chih-Chun & Zhang, Ning & Choi, Yongrok & Xiong, Kai & Yu, Jiangli, 2019. "Effectiveness of crop residuals in ethanol and pyrolysis-based electricity production: A stochastic analysis under uncertain climate impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 267-276.
    20. Schneider, Uwe A. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Schmid, Erwin, 2007. "Agricultural sector analysis on greenhouse gas mitigation in US agriculture and forestry," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 128-140, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:30887. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/waeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.