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How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?

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  • Chu, L-F.
  • McAleer, M.J.
  • Chen, C-C.

Abstract

This paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse gas, and examines how these gases affect the frequency and strength of El Niño on the global economy. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately, and that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The ENSO strengths for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are predicted for the year 2030 to increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This indicates that we will be faced with even stronger El Nino or La Nina effects in the future if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated.

Suggested Citation

  • Chu, L-F. & McAleer, M.J. & Chen, C-C., 2012. "How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2012-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:38689
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Glen Livingston & Darfiana Nur, 2020. "Bayesian inference of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)(k)–GARCH(l, m) models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2449-2482, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO); global Economy; greenhouse gas emissions; sea surface temperature (SST); southern oscillation ndex (SOI); volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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