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How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Lan-Fen Chu

    (National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Taiwan)

  • M. McAleer

    (Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam and Institute of Economic Research Kyoto University andDepartment of Quantitative Economics Complutense University of Madrid)

  • Chi-Chung Chen

    (Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University Taiwan)

Abstract

This paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Ninos Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse gas, and examines how these gases affect the frequency and strength of El Nino on the global economy. The empirical results show that both the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) and ARMA(3,2)-GJR(1,1) models are suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately, and that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has increased since 1998. Moreover, the increasing ENSO strength is due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The ENSO strengths for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are predicted for the year 2030 to increase from 29.62% to 81.5% if global CO2 emissions increase by 40% to 110%, respectively. This indicates that we will be faced with even stronger El Nino or La Nina effects in the future if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase unabated.

Suggested Citation

  • Lan-Fen Chu & M. McAleer & Chi-Chung Chen, 2012. "How Volatile is ENSO for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Global Economy?," KIER Working Papers 829, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:829
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    File URL: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP829.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Glen Livingston & Darfiana Nur, 2020. "Bayesian inference of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)(k)–GARCH(l, m) models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 2449-2482, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    El Ninos Southern Oscillations (ENSO); Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Global Economy; Southern Oscillation Index (SOI); Sea Surface Temperature (SST); Volatility.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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