IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ajfand/340721.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Econometric Modeling Of The Nexus Of Agricultural Policy And Food Security In Nigeria: A Dummy Variable Regression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Shaibu, UM
  • Umeh, JC
  • Abu, GA
  • Abu, O
  • Egyir, IS

Abstract

Sustainable food production is not negotiable if food security is to be achieved. Recent statistics show increasing food insecurity issues in Nigeria despite government policy and programmes in the agricultural sector. The study specifically described agriculture growth trend under three policy regimes and analysed the effects of agricultural sector policy on food security in Nigeria between 1960 and 2020. Secondary data on agricultural output, gross deficit financing, labour employed in the agricultural sector, land, and population were obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The data were analysed using trend analysis and Dummy Variable Regression (DVR) model. The Instantaneous Growth Rate (IGR) and compound growth rate (CGR) were respectively 3 percent and 7.2 percent in 1960 – 1969, 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent in 1970 – 1985, and 3.4 percent and 8.1 percent in 1986 – 2020; the country experienced stagnated pattern of growth in the agriculture sector within the oil boom and policy reconstruction period with an instantaneous and compound growth rate of 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. An IGR and CGR of 3.4 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively were recorded during the policy stabilization era with an accelerating growth pattern. The intercept of agricultural output and per capita food production of the period with complete agricultural policy document differs from the period with no policy document by 36.8 percent and 39.8 percent, respectively, revealing an increase in the value of agricultural output and per capita food production in the period with a national policy document. The study concludes that availability of agricultural sector policy document directly impacts food security. The postestimation tests on the models confirmed that policy implications emanating from this study are adoptable to improve food security in Nigeria through the agricultural sector policy. Proper and efficient policy mix to support agricultural production was recommended.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaibu, UM & Umeh, JC & Abu, GA & Abu, O & Egyir, IS, 2023. "Econometric Modeling Of The Nexus Of Agricultural Policy And Food Security In Nigeria: A Dummy Variable Regression Approach," African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development (AJFAND), African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development (AJFAND), vol. 23(6), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajfand:340721
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.340721
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/340721/files/Shaibu.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.340721?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C. & Perez, Nicostrato D., 1995. "Global food projections to 2020: implications for investment," 2020 vision discussion papers 5, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Umeh, J. Chinedu, 1994. "On-farm storage structure inventory management: An economic appraisal of rhumbu," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-3), pages 77-84, June.
    3. Mozumdar, Lavlu, 2012. "Agricultural productivity and food security in the developing world," Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, vol. 35(1-2).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prabhu Pingali, 2007. "Agricultural growth and economic development: a view through the globalization lens," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Pandya-Lorch, Rajul & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2000. "Prospects for food demand and supply in Central Asia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 637-646, December.
    3. Heisey, Paul W. & Edmeades, Gregory O., 1999. "Cimmyt 1997/98 World Maize Facts And Trends; Maize Production In Drought-Stressed Environments: Technical Options And Research Resource Allocation," Facts and Trends/Overview and Outlook 9369, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    4. Csáki, Csaba, 1999. "Középtávú tendenciák a világ agrárpiacain [Medium-term trends on the agrarian world markets]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 297-306.
    5. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Bhandari, Humnath & Pandey, Sushil & Sulser, Timothy, 2010. "Rice Price Crisis: Causes, Impacts, and Solutions," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Meng, Erika & Longmire, Jim & Moldashev, Altynbeck, 2000. "Kazakhstan's wheat system: priorities, constraints, and future prospects," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 701-717, December.
    7. Wolf, J. & Bindraban, P. S. & Luijten, J. C. & Vleeshouwers, L. M., 2003. "Exploratory study on the land area required for global food supply and the potential global production of bioenergy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 841-861, June.
    8. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision discussion papers 28, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. San, Nu Nu & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Perez, Nicostrato D., 1998. "Indonesian agriculture in transition: Projections of alternative futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 445-465.
    10. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Meijer, Siet, 2001. "Livestock To 2020: The Revolution Continues," 2001: International Trade in Livestock Products Symposium, January 2001, Auckland, New Zealand 14560, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    11. Akram A. Khan & Nazli Bano, 2007. "Declining Indian Agricultural Trade in an Unequal World," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 8(1), pages 99-117, February.
    12. Scott, Gregory J. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Ringler, Claudia, 2000. "Global projections for root and tuber crops to the year 2020," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 561-597, October.
    13. Barkley, Andrew P. & Nalley, Lawton Lanier & Crespi, John M., 2008. "The Impact of the CIMMYT Wheat Breeding Program on Mexican Wheat Producers and Consumers: An Economic Welfare Analysis," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6931, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    14. Philip G. Pardey & Jason M. Beddow & Terrance M. Hurley & Timothy K.M. Beatty & Vernon R. Eidman, 2014. "A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 571-589, October.
    15. Hossain, Mahabub, 2006. "Technological Progress for Sustaining Food-Population Balance: Achievement and Challenges," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25316, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Duncan, Ronald C., 1997. "World food markets into the 21st century: commodity risk management policies," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(3), pages 1-15.
    17. Talukdar, Swapan & Naikoo, Mohd Waseem & Mallick, Javed & Praveen, Bushra & Shahfahad, & Sharma, Pritee & Islam, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul & Pal, Swades & Rahman, Atiqur, 2022. "Coupling geographic information system integrated fuzzy logic-analytical hierarchy process with global and machine learning based sensitivity analysis for agricultural suitability mapping," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    18. Nida Baig & Chen He & Shahbaz Khan & Salman Ali Shah, 2019. "CPEC and Food Security: Empirical Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Public Administration and Governance, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 191-208, March.
    19. Zhong, Funing & Xiang, Jing & Zhu, Jing, 2012. "Impact of demographic dynamics on food consumption — A case study of energy intake in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1011-1019.
    20. Charlotte Fraiture, 2007. "Integrated water and food analysis at the global and basin level. An application of WATERSIM," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 185-198, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ajfand:340721. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ajfand.net/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.