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A New Fuzzy Time Series Analysis Approach By Using Differential Evolution Algorithm And Chronologically-Determined Weights

Author

Listed:
  • Vedide Rezan USLU

    (University of Ondokuz Mayis, Turkey)

  • Eren BAS

    (Giresun University, Turkey)

  • Ufuk YOLCU

    (Giresun University, Turkey)

  • Erol EGRIOGLU

    (University of Ondokuz Mayis, Turkey)

Abstract

Fuzzy time series approaches, which do not require the strict assumptions of traditional time series approaches, generally consist of three stages. These stages are called as the fuzzification of crisp time series observations, the identification of fuzzy relationships and the defuzzification, respectively. All of these stages play an important role on the forecasting performance of the model. By this study we want to contribute to the stage of fuzzification so that the interval length is determined by using the differential evolution algorithm and also we take into account chronological-determined weights in the stage of defuzzification

Suggested Citation

  • Vedide Rezan USLU & Eren BAS & Ufuk YOLCU & Erol EGRIOGLU, 2013. "A New Fuzzy Time Series Analysis Approach By Using Differential Evolution Algorithm And Chronologically-Determined Weights," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 18-30, JULY.
    • Handle: RePEc:aes:jsesro:v:2:y:2013:i:1:p:18-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huarng, Kunhuang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2006. "The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 363(2), pages 481-491.
    2. Yu, Hui-Kuang, 2005. "Weighted fuzzy time series models for TAIEX forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 349(3), pages 609-624.
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    Cited by:

    1. Surendra Singh Gautam & Abhishekh & S. R. Singh, 2020. "A modified weighted method of time series forecasting in intuitionistic fuzzy environment," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 57(3), pages 1022-1041, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuzzy time series; Fuzzification; Differential evolution algorithm; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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