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Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation

Author

Listed:
  • Zhenyu Gao
  • Michael Sockin
  • Wei Xiong
  • Itay Goldstein

Abstract

By exploiting variation in state capital gains taxation as an instrument, we analyze the economic consequences of housing speculation during the U.S. housing boom in the 2000s. We find that housing speculation, anchored, in part, on extrapolation of past housing price changes, led not only to greater price appreciation, economic expansions, and housing construction during the boom in 2004–2006 but also to more severe economic downturns during the subsequent bust in 2007–2009. Our analysis supports supply overhang and local household demand as two key channels for transmitting these adverse effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenyu Gao & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong & Itay Goldstein, 2020. "Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(11), pages 5248-5287.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:33:y:2020:i:11:p:5248-5287.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhaa030
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shi, Yining, 2022. "Financial liberalization and house prices: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    3. Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei & Yang, Zhongchao, 2024. "Delayed crises and slow recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Jack Favilukis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Out‐of‐Town Home Buyers and City Welfare," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2577-2638, October.
    5. Nicolas L. Bottan & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2020. "Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices," NBER Working Papers 27412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lambrecht, Marco & Sofianos, Andis & Xu, Yilong, 2020. "Does mining fuel bubbles? An experimental study on cryptocurrency markets," Working Papers 0690, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    7. Turnbull, Geoffrey K. & van der Vlist, Arno J., 2022. "The price of ignorance: Foreclosures, uninformed buyers and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
    9. Stuart Gabriel & Matteo Iacoviello & Chandler Lutz, 2021. "A Crisis of Missed Opportunities? Foreclosure Costs and Mortgage Modification During the Great Recession [Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 864-906.
    10. Lauren Lambie‐Hanson & Wenli Li & Michael Slonkosky, 2022. "Real estate investors and the U.S. housing recovery," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(6), pages 1425-1461, November.
    11. Lan, Hao & Moreira, Fernando & Zhao, Sheng, 2023. "Can a house resale restriction policy curb speculation? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 841-859.
    12. Nam, Tong-yob & Oh, Seungjoon, 2021. "Non-recourse mortgage law and housing speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    13. Stig Vinther Møller & Thomas Pedersen & Erik Christian Montes Schütte & Allan Timmermann, 2024. "Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(1), pages 415-438, January.
    14. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Korevaar, Matthijs, 2023. "Reaching for yield and the housing market: Evidence from 18th-century Amsterdam," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 273-296.
    16. Titman, Sheridan & Zhu, Guozhong, 2024. "City characteristics, land prices and volatility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Yousef Mohammadzaheh & Arash Refah-Kahriz, 2023. "Saving structure, housing speculation, and economic growth in the Iranian economy," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 25(1), pages 170-195, June.
    18. Flannery, Mark J. & Lin, Leming & Wang, Luxi, 2022. "Housing booms and bank growth," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    19. Lingxiao Li & Abdullah Yavas & Bing Zhu, 2023. "Externalities of residential property flipping," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 233-271, January.
    20. Bo Li, 2024. "Household Leverage Cycle Around the Great Recession," Papers 2407.01539, arXiv.org.
    21. Bo Li, 2024. "Testing Business Cycle Theories: Evidence from the Great Recession," Papers 2403.04104, arXiv.org.
    22. Drechsler, Itamar & Savov, Alexi & Schnabl, Philipp, 2022. "How monetary policy shaped the housing boom," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 992-1021.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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