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An empirical comparison of alternate schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts

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  1. Özen, Kadir & Yıldırım, Dilem, 2021. "Application of bagging in day-ahead electricity price forecasting and factor augmentation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  2. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
  3. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
  4. Olivares, Kin G. & Challu, Cristian & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał & Dubrawski, Artur, 2023. "Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 884-900.
  5. Д.О. Афанасьев1 & * & Е.А. Федорова2 & **, 2019. "Краткосрочное Прогнозирование Цены Электроэнергии На Российском Рынке С Использованием Класса Моделей Scarx," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(1), pages 68-84, январь.
  6. Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2023. "Multivariate Probabilistic CRPS Learning with an Application to Day-Ahead Electricity Prices," Papers 2303.10019, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
  7. Agrawal, Rahul Kumar & Muchahary, Frankle & Tripathi, Madan Mohan, 2019. "Ensemble of relevance vector machines and boosted trees for electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 540-548.
  8. Marie Bessec & Julien Fouquau & Sophie Meritet, 2016. "Forecasting electricity spot prices using time-series models with a double temporal segmentation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 361-378, January.
  9. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
  10. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub, 2016. "A hybrid model for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electricity price forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1051-1056.
  11. Tschora, Léonard & Pierre, Erwan & Plantevit, Marc & Robardet, Céline, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
  12. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Todorova, Neda, 2017. "Volatility forecasting of non-ferrous metal futures: Covariances, covariates or combinations?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 228-247.
  13. UÄŸur Åžener & Salvatore Joseph Terregrossa, 2024. "A Transcendental LASSO Function for Combining Machine Learning and Statistical Model Forecasts," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(3), pages 21582440241, August.
  14. Goodarzi, Shadi & Perera, H. Niles & Bunn, Derek, 2019. "The impact of renewable energy forecast errors on imbalance volumes and electricity spot prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  15. Bartosz Uniejewski & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Automated Variable Selection and Shrinkage for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, August.
  16. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Selection of Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
  17. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
  18. Ping Jiang & Feng Liu & Yiliao Song, 2016. "A Hybrid Multi-Step Model for Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Price Based on Optimization, Fuzzy Logic and Model Selection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-27, August.
  19. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
  20. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1520-1532.
  21. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Weron, 2019. "Day-Ahead vs. Intraday—Forecasting the Price Spread to Maximize Economic Benefits," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, February.
  22. Nowotarski, Jakub & Liu, Bidong & Weron, Rafał & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 40-49.
  23. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Efficient Forecasting of Electricity Spot Prices with Expert and LASSO Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, August.
  24. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
  25. Léonard Tschora & Erwan Pierre & Marc Plantevit & Céline Robardet, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Post-Print hal-03621974, HAL.
  26. Beltrán, Sergio & Castro, Alain & Irizar, Ion & Naveran, Gorka & Yeregui, Imanol, 2022. "Framework for collaborative intelligence in forecasting day-ahead electricity price," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
  27. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13532 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Niedrig, Nicolas & Giehl, Johannes & Jahnke, Philipp & Müller-Kirchenbauer, Joachim, 2024. "Market Design Options for a Hydrogen Market," Working Papers 4-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
  29. Tomasz Zema & Adam Sulich, 2022. "Models of Electricity Price Forecasting: Bibliometric Research," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-18, August.
  30. Bidong Liu & Jakub Nowotarski & Tao Hong & Rafal Weron, 2015. "Probabilistic load forecasting via Quantile Regression Averaging on sister forecasts," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  31. Jiang, Hongyan & Cheng, Feng & Wu, Cong & Fang, Dianjun & Zeng, Yuhai, 2024. "A multi-period-sequential-index combination method for short-term prediction of small sample data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
  32. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  33. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA Forecast Averaging—Predicting Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
  34. Mirakyan, Atom & Meyer-Renschhausen, Martin & Koch, Andreas, 2017. "Composite forecasting approach, application for next-day electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 228-237.
  35. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
  36. Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
  37. Suryanarayana, Gowri & Lago, Jesus & Geysen, Davy & Aleksiejuk, Piotr & Johansson, Christian, 2018. "Thermal load forecasting in district heating networks using deep learning and advanced feature selection methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 141-149.
  38. Carlos Henrique Dias Cordeiro de Castro & Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube, 2023. "Forecasting inflation time series using score‐driven dynamic models and combination methods: The case of Brazil," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 369-401, March.
  39. Martin, Gael M. & Frazier, David T. & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Loaiza-Maya, Rubén & Huber, Florian & Koop, Gary & Maheu, John & Nibbering, Didier & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024. "Bayesian forecasting in economics and finance: A modern review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 811-839.
  40. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
  41. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
  42. Vijay, Avinash & Fouquet, Nicolas & Staffell, Iain & Hawkes, Adam, 2017. "The value of electricity and reserve services in low carbon electricity systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 111-123.
  43. Mehmet Pinar & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2018. "Quantile forecast combination using stochastic dominance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1717-1755, December.
  44. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Beating the Naïve—Combining LASSO with Naïve Intraday Electricity Price Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, April.
  45. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nitka, Weronika & Weron, Tomasz, 2021. "Enhancing load, wind and solar generation for day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  46. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2022. "A procedure for upgrading linear-convex combination forecasts with an application to volatility prediction," CQE Working Papers 9722, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  47. Auer, Benjamin R., 2016. "How does Germany's green energy policy affect electricity market volatility? An application of conditional autoregressive range models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 621-628.
  48. Bastos, Guadalupe & García-Martos, Carolina, 2017. "Electricity prices forecasting by averaging dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24028, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  49. Segnon Mawuli & Lau Chi Keung & Wilfling Bernd & Gupta Rangan, 2022. "Are multifractal processes suited to forecasting electricity price volatility? Evidence from Australian intraday data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 73-98, February.
  50. Andrés M. Alonso & Guadalupe Bastos & Carolina García-Martos, 2016. "Electricity Price Forecasting by Averaging Dynamic Factor Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-21, July.
  51. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  52. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2017. "Variance stabilizing transformations for electricity spot price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  53. Nikodinoska, Dragana & Käso, Mathias & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "Solar and wind power generation forecasts using elastic net in time-varying forecast combinations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
  54. Rodrigo A. de Marcos & Antonio Bello & Javier Reneses, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with a Composite Fundamental-Econometric Hybrid Methodology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-15, March.
  55. Araujo, Gustavo Silva & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2023. "Machine learning methods for inflation forecasting in Brazil: New contenders versus classical models," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
  56. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 228-235.
  57. Zhang, Jinliang & Tan, Zhongfu & Wei, Yiming, 2020. "An adaptive hybrid model for short term electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
  58. Claudio Monteiro & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado, 2020. "Predictive Trading Strategy for Physical Electricity Futures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-24, July.
  59. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  60. Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Serafin & Dimitrios Sotiros, 2021. "Forecasting Electricity Prices: Autoregressive Hybrid Nearest Neighbors (ARHNN) method," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/06, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  61. Carlo Fezzi & Luca Mosetti, 2018. "Size matters: Estimation sample length and electricity price forecasting accuracy," DEM Working Papers 2018/10, Department of Economics and Management.
  62. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
  63. Mayer, Klaus & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Electricity markets around the world," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 77-100.
  64. Avci, Ezgi & Ketter, Wolfgang & van Heck, Eric, 2018. "Managing electricity price modeling risk via ensemble forecasting: The case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 390-403.
  65. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "To combine or not to combine? Recent trends in electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  66. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2021. "Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 777-799.
  67. Ulrich Gunter, 2021. "Improving Hotel Room Demand Forecasts for Vienna across Hotel Classes and Forecast Horizons: Single Models and Combination Techniques Based on Encompassing Tests," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-36, November.
  68. Daud Ali Aser & Esin Firuzan, 2022. "Improving Forecast Accuracy Using Combined Forecasts with Regard to Structural Breaks and ARCH Innovations," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 1-25, December.
  69. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2015. "Computing electricity spot price prediction intervals using quantile regression and forecast averaging," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 791-803, September.
  70. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Merging quantile regression with forecast averaging to obtain more accurate interval forecasts of Nord Pool spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  71. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  72. Arkadiusz Jędrzejewski & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafał Weron, 2021. "Importance of the Long-Term Seasonal Component in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Revisited: Parameter-Rich Models Estimated via the LASSO," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
  73. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
  74. Katarzyna Hubicka & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2018. "A note on averaging day-ahead electricity price forecasts across calibration windows," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  75. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Weron, 2019. "Enhancing load, wind and solar generation forecasts in day-ahead forecasting of spot and intraday electricity prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/19/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
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  77. Peng, Lu & Liu, Shan & Liu, Rui & Wang, Lin, 2018. "Effective long short-term memory with differential evolution algorithm for electricity price prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1301-1314.
  78. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity spot prices using Factor Quantile Regression Averaging," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 957-965.
  79. Kadir Özen & Dilem Yıldırım, 2021. "Application of Bagging in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting and Factor Augmentation," ERC Working Papers 2101, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
  80. Alessandra Amendola & Vincenzo Candila & Antonio Naimoli & Giuseppe Storti, 2024. "Adaptive combinations of tail-risk forecasts," Papers 2406.06235, arXiv.org.
  81. Bidong Liu & Jiali Liu & Tao Hong, 2015. "Sister models for load forecast combination," HSC Research Reports HSC/15/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
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