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Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa

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Cited by:

  1. Liu, De-Chih, 2013. "The evolution of excess job reallocation in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 188-206.
  2. Mr. Harm Zebregs, 2004. "Intraregional Trade in Emerging Asia," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2004/001, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Comovement In Buying Versus Renting In The Usa," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(3), pages 93-121, September.
  4. Eliana González & Luis F. Melo & Viviana Monroy & Brayan Rojas, 2009. "A Dynamic Factor Model For The Colombian Inflation," Borradores de Economia 5273, Banco de la Republica.
  5. Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2009. "Tracking down the business cycle: A dynamic factor model for Germany 1820-1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 368-387, July.
  6. Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Moench, Emanuel & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2009. "Sectoral price data and models of price setting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 78-99.
  7. Romain Houssa & Lasse Bork & Hans Dewachter, 2008. "Identification of Macroeconomic Factors in Large Panels," Working Papers 1010, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
  8. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
  9. Grace Lee, 2011. "Aggregate shocks decomposition for eight East Asian countries," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 215-232.
  10. James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Normalization in Econometrics," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 221-252.
  11. Ritschl, Albrecht & Uebele, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, August.
  13. Chadwick, Meltem, 2010. "An Empirical Analysis of Fluctuations in Economic Efficiency in European Countries," MPRA Paper 75304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  15. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
  16. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Melosi, Leonardo, 2013. "Methods for computing marginal data densities from the Gibbs output," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 132-141.
  17. Laura E. Jackson & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Michael T. Owyang, 2016. "Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: A Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 361-400, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  18. Arpita Chatterjee, 2013. "Globalization and Monetary Policy: An Empirical Analysis," Discussion Papers 2013-08, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  19. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  20. Rahmanov, Ramiz & Adigozalov, Shaig & Huseynov, Salman, 2013. "Azərbaycan Mərkəzi Bankının inflyasiya hədəfi: Baza yoxsa manşet inflyasiya? [The target of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan: Core or headline inflation?]," MPRA Paper 69825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. de Bandt, O. & Barhoumi, K. & Bruneau, C., 2010. "The international transmission of house price shocks," Working papers 274, Banque de France.
  22. Krzysztof Beck & Karen Jackson, 2024. "International trade fluctuations: Global versus regional factors," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 331-358, February.
  23. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Comovement in Buying versus Renting in the United States," Working Papers 201832, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  24. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 11192, CESifo.
  25. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2002. "Panel Index Var Models: Specification, Estimation, Testing And Leading Indicators," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-21, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  26. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-032 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2019. "What happens to the relationship between EU allowances prices and stock market indices in Europe?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 13-24.
  28. Aßmann, Christian & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Pape, Markus, 2012. "The directional identification problem in Bayesian factor analysis: An ex-post approach," Kiel Working Papers 1799, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  29. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  30. Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & León-Ledesma, Miguel, 2013. "World, country, and sector factors in international business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2913-2927.
  31. Neely, Christopher J. & Rapach, David E., 2011. "International comovements in inflation rates and country characteristics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1471-1490.
  32. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-004 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Azali, M., 2012. "Is East Asia an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 87-95.
  34. Sybille Lehwald, 2013. "Has the Euro changed business cycle synchronization? Evidence from the core and the periphery," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 655-684, November.
  35. Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias & Ulloa, Barbara, 2016. "What drives international portfolio flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 53-72.
  36. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:139:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Otrok Christopher & Pourpourides Panayiotis M., 2019. "On the cyclicality of real wages and wage differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-18, January.
  38. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  39. Hansen, Bruce E., 2006. "Interval forecasts and parameter uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 377-398.
  40. Beetsma, Roel & Cimadomo, Jacopo & van Spronsen, Josha, 2024. "One scheme fits all: A central fiscal capacity for the EMU targeting eurozone, national and regional shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
  41. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
  42. Lukas Berend & Jan Pruser, 2024. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy via Common Cycles in the Euro Area," Papers 2410.05741, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
  43. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. business cycle, 1867-1995: Dynamic factor analysis vs. reconstructed national accounts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-066, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  44. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2018. "Integrated Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 6-2018, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  45. Coroneo, Laura & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2020. "International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  46. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
  47. Mario Crucini & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2011. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 156-175, January.
  48. Krzysztof Beck & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Globalization or Regionalization of Stock Markets? the Case of Central and Eastern European Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(4), pages 317-330, July.
  49. Klarl, Torben, 2018. "Housing is local: Applying a dynamic unobserved factor model for the Dutch housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 79-84.
  50. Chatterjee, Arpita, 2016. "Globalization and monetary policy comovement: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 181-202.
  51. Maximo Camacho & Angela Caro & German Lopez-Buenache, 2020. "The two-speed Europe in business cycle synchronization," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1069-1084, September.
  52. Jungbacker, B. & Koopman, S.J. & van der Wel, M., 2011. "Maximum likelihood estimation for dynamic factor models with missing data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1358-1368, August.
  53. Tibor Szendrei & Katalin Varga, 2020. "FISS - A Factor-based Index of Systemic Stress in the Financial System," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(1), pages 3-34, March.
  54. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2015. "Common Fluctuations in OECD Budget Balances," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(2), pages 109-132.
  55. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2005. "Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  56. Zorn, Peter, 2016. "Investment under Rational Inattention: Evidence from US Sectoral Data," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145572, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  57. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  58. Máximo Camacho & Matías Pacce & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2020. "Spillover effects in international business cycles," Working Papers 2034, Banco de España.
  59. Santos, Sonia de Lucas & Rodríguez, María Jesús Delgado & Ayuso, Inmaculada Álvarez, 2011. "Application of factor models for the identification of countries sharing international reference-cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2424-2431.
  60. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Christian Pierdzioch & Afees A. Salisu, 2022. "Machine Learning Predictions of Housing Market Synchronization across US States: The Role of Uncertainty," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 523-545, May.
  61. Tao Zeng & Yong Li & Jun Yu, 2014. "Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips, volume 33, pages 615-637, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  62. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
  63. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
  64. Caraiani, Petre & Călin, Adrian Cantemir, 2024. "The comovement of bubbles’ responses to monetary policy shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  65. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad, 2009. "Crisis? What Crisis? Currency vs. Banking in the Financial Crisis of 1931," CEPR Discussion Papers 7610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  66. Houssa, Romain, 2008. "Monetary union in West Africa and asymmetric shocks: A dynamic structural factor model approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 319-347, February.
  67. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Zubairy, Sarah, 2018. "Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 67-91.
  68. Libo Yin & Qingyuan Yang & Zhi Su, 2017. "Predictability of structural co-movement in commodity prices: the role of technical indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 795-812, May.
  69. J. Polzehl & V. Spokoiny & C. Starica, 2004. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," Econometrics 0411017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  70. Olfa Kaabia & Ilyes Abid, 2012. "Theoretical Channels of International,Transmission During the Subprime Crisis to OCDE Countries: A FAVAR Model Under Bayesian Framework," Working Papers hal-04141045, HAL.
  71. Chen, Peng, 2015. "Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 284-294.
  72. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
  73. Agne Reklaite, 2011. "Coincident, leading and recession indexes for the Lithuanian economy," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 91-108, July.
  74. Chadwick, Meltem Gulenay & Ozturk, Huseyin, 2019. "Measuring financial systemic stress for Turkey: A search for the best composite indicator," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 151-172.
  75. Hasan Isomitdinov & Vladimir Arčabić & Junsoo Lee & Youngjin Yun & James E. Payne, 2024. "International comovements of public debt," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 722-747, April.
  76. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  77. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "House price synchronization across the US states: The role of structural oil shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  78. Olfa Kaabia & Ilyes Abid, 2012. "Theoretical Channels of International,Transmission During the Subprime Crisis to OCDE Countries : A FAVAR Model Under Bayesian Framework," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-40, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  79. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma, 2007. "Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?," Working Papers 2007-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
  80. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2016. "The U.S. business cycle, 1867–2006: a dynamic factor approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67420, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  81. Petre Caraiani & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2020. "Housing markets, monetary policy, and the international co‐movement of housing bubbles," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 365-375, May.
  82. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  83. Albers, Thilo & Uebele, Martin, 2015. "The global impact of the great depression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64491, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  84. Linyue Li & Nan Zhang & Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "Measuring macroeconomic and financial market interdependence: a critical survey," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 128-145, May.
  85. Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer & Philipp Piribauer, 2020. "A multi‐country dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility for euro area business cycle analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 911-926, September.
  86. Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini, 2018. "Advanced economies and emerging markets: Dissecting the drivers of business cycle synchronization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 115-130.
  87. Huiran Pan & Chun Wang, 2013. "Financial Development And Economic Growth: A New Investigation," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(1), pages 27-46, March.
  88. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
  89. Toyoichiro Shirota, 2013. "What is the Major Determinant of Credit Flows through Cross-Border Banking?," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-5, Bank of Japan.
  90. Gelfer, Sacha, 2020. "The effects of professional forecast dissemination on macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 131-156.
  91. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
  92. Grace H.Y. Lee & M. Azali, 2009. "A Bayesian Approach to Optimum Currency Areas in East Asia," Monash Economics Working Papers 18-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  93. László Békési & Lorant Kaszab & Szabolcs Szentmihályi, 2017. "The EAGLE model for Hungary - a global perspective," MNB Working Papers 2017/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  94. Oguzhan Cepni & Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "The Time-Varying Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the Comovement of Regional Housing Prices of the United Kingdom," Working Papers 202168, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  95. Edward P. Herbst & Fabian Winkler, 2021. "The Factor Structure of Disagreement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  96. Yong Li & Zeng Tao & Jun Yu, "undated". "Robust Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," Working Papers CoFie-04-2012, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  97. Albers, Thilo Nils Hendrik, 2018. "The prelude and global impact of the Great Depression: Evidence from a new macroeconomic dataset," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 150-163.
  98. Arpita Chatterjee, 2014. "Globalization and Monetary Policy Comovement: Evidence from G-7 Countries," Discussion Papers 2014-19, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  99. Pedro Cerqueira, 2011. "How Pervasive is the World Business Cycle?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 119-142, February.
  100. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  101. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Is inflation an international phenomenon?," Working Papers 2008-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  102. B. Jungbacker & S.J. Koopman & M. van der Wel, 2009. "Dynamic Factor Analysis in The Presence of Missing Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-010/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 11 Mar 2011.
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