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Crisis? What crisis? Currency vs. banking in the Financial Crisis of 1931

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  • Ritschl, Albrecht
  • Sarferaz, Samad

Abstract

This paper examines the role of currency and banking in the German financial crisis of 1931 for both Germany and the U.S. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately for each of the two economies. We find that monetary transmission through the Gold Standard played only a minor role in causing and propagating the crisis, while financial distress was important. We also find evidence of crisis propagation from Germany to the U.S. via the banking channel. Banking distress in both economies was apparently not endogenous to monetary policy. Results confirm Bernanke's (1983) conjecture that an independent, non-monetary financial channel of crisis propagation was operative in the Great Depression.

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  • Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad, 2010. "Crisis? What crisis? Currency vs. banking in the Financial Crisis of 1931," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-014, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2010-014
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    Cited by:

    1. Accominotti, Olivier, 2012. "London Merchant Banks, the Central European Panic, and the Sterling Crisis of 1931," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-43, March.
    2. Albrecht Ritschl, 2012. "Reparations, Deficits, and Debt Default: the Great Depression in Germany," CEP Discussion Papers dp1149, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Luis Araujo & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2010. "There Will Be Money," CEP Discussion Papers dp1004, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Ralf Martin, 2010. "Productivity Spreads, Market Power Spreads and Trade," CEP Discussion Papers dp0997, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Albrecht Ritschl, 2012. "War 2008 das neue 1929? Richtige und falsche Vergleiche zwischen der Großen Depression der 1930er Jahre und der Großen Rezession von 2008," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13, pages 36-57, May.
    6. Albrecht Ritschl & Samad Sarferaz, 2014. "Currency Versus Banking In The Financial Crisis Of 1931," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(2), pages 349-373, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Depression; 1931 financial crisis; international business cycle transmission; Bayesian factor analysis; currency; banking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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