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Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
  2. Kameda, Keigo, 2014. "Budget deficits, government debt, and long-term interest rates in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 105-124.
  3. Otto Gandenberger, 2000. "Is the Fiscal Deficit Misconceived? Proponents of Generational Accounting Overstate their Case," CESifo Working Paper Series 282, CESifo.
  4. Kandil, Magda, 2009. "Demand-side stabilization policies: What is the evidence of their potential?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 261-276.
  5. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2016. "Government spending shocks in open economy VARs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 68-84.
  6. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2014. "Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 100-114.
  7. Daniel Levy, 1995. "Investment-saving comovement under endogenous fiscal policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 237-254, July.
  8. Haydory Akbar Ahmed & M. Wasiqur Rahman Khan, 2022. "Short-term and long-term interest rate spread’s dynamics to risk and the yield curve," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-19, October.
  9. Cebula, Richard & Koch, James, 1988. "An Empirical Note on Deficits, Interest Rates, and International Capital Flows," MPRA Paper 50165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Smetters, Kent, 1999. "Ricardian equivalence: long-run Leviathan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 395-421, September.
  11. Normandin, Michel, 1999. "Budget deficit persistence and the twin deficits hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 171-193, October.
  12. Manuel Coutinho Pereira, 2009. "A New Measure of Fiscal Shocks Based on Budget Forecasts and its Implications," Working Papers w200921, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  13. Ali Darrat, 2002. "On Budget Deficits And Interest Rates: Another Look At The Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 19-29.
  14. Sinai, Allen, 2006. "Deficits, expected deficits, financial markets, and the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-101, March.
  15. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
  16. Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2011. "Asymmetric Shocks in a Currency Union with Monetary and Fiscal Handcuffs," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 95-136.
  17. Edwards, Ryan D., 2014. "U.S. war costs: Two parts temporary, one part permanent," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 54-66.
  18. Kitchen, John & Orden, David, 1991. "Effects of Fiscal Policy on Agriculture and the Rural Economy," Staff Reports 278556, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  19. Gerlach, Stefan & Wolff, Guntram B. & Schulz, Alexander, 2010. "Banking and Sovereign Risk in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Luca Gambetti, 2012. "Fiscal Foresight, Forecast Revisions and the Effects of Government Spending in the Open Economy," Working Papers 644, Barcelona School of Economics.
  21. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2002. "Ricardian Equivalence with Incomplete Household Risk Sharing," NBER Working Papers 8851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2002. "Ricardian Equivalence with Incomplete Household Risk Sharing: Technical Paper 2002-4," Working Papers 14222, Congressional Budget Office.
  23. Richard J. Cebula, 2000. "The Impact of Structural Budget Deficits on Commercial Bank Interest Rates: Reply," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(3), pages 195-198, May.
  24. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 176(1), pages 9-41, April.
  25. Damla Hacýibrahimoðlu & Pýnar Derin-Güre, 2015. "Generational Accounting in Turkey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26.
  26. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
  27. Elmendorf, Douglas W & Hirschfeld, Mary L & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Effect of News on Bond Prices: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1900-1920," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 341-344, May.
  28. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
  29. Richard J. Cebula, 1998. "An empirical analysis of the impact of federal budget deficits on long‐term nominal interest rate yields, 1973.2–1995.4, using alternative expected inflation measures," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 55-64.
  30. Michael Toma & Richard Cebula, 2001. "Politicians, deficits, and monetary policy in the U.S. revisited," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(4), pages 419-430, November.
  31. Belton, Willie & Cebula, Richard, 1994. "International Capital Flows, Federal Budget Deficits, and Interest Rates, 1971-1984," MPRA Paper 52345, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1988_013 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. John B. Shoven & Scott B. Smart & Joel Waldfogel, 1992. "Real Interest Rates and the Savings and Loan Crisis: The Moral Hazard Premium," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 155-167, Winter.
  34. Biswajit Maitra, 2017. "Monetary and fiscal factors in nominal interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under a deregulated regime," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
  35. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
  36. Kitchen, John, 2002. "A Note on Interest Rates and Structural Federal Budget Deficits," MPRA Paper 21069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2002.
  37. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Kandil, Magda, 2001. "Asymmetry in the effects of us government spending shocks: evidence and implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 137-165.
  39. Laurence Booth & George Georgopoulos & Walid Hejazi, 2007. "What drives provincial‐Canada yield spreads?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(3), pages 1008-1032, August.
  40. Eric M. Leeper, 1989. "Policy rules, information and fiscal effects in a \"Ricardian\" model," International Finance Discussion Papers 360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  41. Richard J. Cebula, 1990. "A Keynesian Defense of the Reagan Deficit," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 47-52, January.
  42. Tito B.S. Moreira & Geraldo Silva Souza, 2009. "A Nominal Theory of the Nominal Rate of Interest and the Price Level: Some Empirical Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3120-3125.
  43. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
  45. Ali F. Darrat, 2000. "Do Structural Federal Budget Deficits Impact Commercial Bank Interest Rates? A Comment," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(3), pages 187-194, May.
  46. M. A. Akhtar, 1995. "Monetary Policy And Long‐Term Interest Rates: A Survey Of Empirical Literature," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 110-130, July.
  47. Ghassan, Hassan B., 2003. "آثار عجز الميزانية على الإدخار الخاص في الإقتصاد المغربي عبر نمذجة التقهقر الذاتي البنيوي [Effects of Budget Deficit on Private Savings in Moroccan Economy using SVAR Modeling]," MPRA Paper 56435, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Feb 2004.
  48. Goto, Fábio & Pires, Manoel Carlos de Castro & Rocha, Bruno, 2010. "Fiscal policy in times of crisis: macroeconomic effects of the primary surplus," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
  49. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  50. Richard J. Cebula, 2002. "A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(223), pages 417-435.
  51. Mª Mar Sánchez, 2002. "Interest-Rate Models For Us And Uk With Mixed Inflationary Expectations. A Comparison With The Rational And The Adaptive Scheme," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  52. Lloyd B. Thomas Jr. & Ali Abderrezak, 1988. "Long-Term Interest Rates: The Role of Expected Budget Deficits," Public Finance Review, , vol. 16(3), pages 341-356, July.
  53. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1987. "The optimal collection of seigniorage : Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 327-341, September.
  54. Douglas W. Elmendorf, "undated". "The Effect of Deficit-Reduction Laws on Real Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
  55. Erick Elder, 1999. "Investment effects of departures from governmental present-value budget balance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(10), pages 1239-1247.
  56. William A. Niskanen, 1988. "The Uneasy Relation between the Budget and Trade Deficits," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 507-532, Fall.
  57. Daniel Choi & Mark Holmes, 2014. "Budget deficits and real interest rates: a regime-switching reflection on Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 71-83, January.
  58. A. James Meigs, 1988. "Dollars and Deficits: Substituting False for Real Problems," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 533-553, Fall.
  59. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt9823140f, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  60. Virén, Matti, 1988. "Interest rates and budget deficits : Cross-country evidence from the period 1924-1938," Research Discussion Papers 13/1988, Bank of Finland.
  61. Thi-Hong-Hanh Pham, 2014. "Sovereign bond yields in emerging Asia: New evidence," Working Papers hal-01012093, HAL.
  62. Ari Aisen & David Hauner, 2013. "Budget deficits and interest rates: a fresh perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2501-2510, June.
  63. Ernest Dautovic, 2017. "The effect of real-time fiscal policy on sovereign interest rates in OECD countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 167-185, January.
  64. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1990_012 is not listed on IDEAS
  65. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1991. "The Temporal Causality Between Fiscal Deficits And Interest Rates," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 9(3), pages 12-23, July.
  66. Koskela, Erkki & Virén, Matti, 1990. "Government size and economic growth : some evidence from a market price approach," Research Discussion Papers 12/1990, Bank of Finland.
  67. Oludele Akinloye Akinboade, 2004. "The relationship between budget deficit and interest rates in South Africa: some econometric results," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 289-302.
  68. Murphy, Daniel & Walsh, Kieran James, 2022. "Government spending and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  69. Richard J. Cebula, 1989. "Federal Budget Deficits, International Capital Flows, and the Long-Term Nominal Rate of Interest in the United States," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 125(II), pages 157-164, June.
  70. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2009. "Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: Evidence for the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 633-650, May.
  71. Ali F. Darrat & Bill P. Bowers, 1996. "On the U.S. Budget Deficit Dilemma: Has Television Contributed?," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 40(2), pages 77-85, October.
  72. Andrea Cipollini & Francesco Frangiamore, 2023. "Government spending and credit market: Evidence from Italian (NUTS 3) provinces," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(1), pages 3-30, February.
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