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International Capital Flows, Federal Budget Deficits, and Interest Rates, 1971-1984

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  • Belton, Willie
  • Cebula, Richard

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of federal budget deficits on both short-term and long­-term interest rates from 1971 to 1984 within an open IS-IM model that includes net international capital inflows. Two time periods are examined using quarterly data: 1971.4 to 1984.4 and 1979.4 to 1984.4. Short-term rates are unaffected by the federal. budget deficit in both periods. Long-term rates are an increasing function of the deficit over the 1971.4 to 1984.4 period, but are relatively unaffected by budget deficits during the 1979.4 to 1984.4 period. The evidence implies that net international capital inflows over the latter period offset the interest rate effects of the federal deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Belton, Willie & Cebula, Richard, 1994. "International Capital Flows, Federal Budget Deficits, and Interest Rates, 1971-1984," MPRA Paper 52345, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52345
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thies, Clifford F, 1986. "Business Price Expectations: 1947-83," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 336-354, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sinai, Allen, 2006. "Deficits, expected deficits, financial markets, and the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-101, March.
    2. Murthy, N. R. Vasudeva & Phillips, Joseph M., 1996. "The relationship between budget deficits and capital inflows: Further econometric evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 485-494.
    3. Säfvenblad, Patrik, 1999. "The Informational Advantage of Foreign Investors: An Empirical Study of the Swedish Bond Market," Working Paper Series 86, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Chen, David Y., 2007. "Effects of monetary policy on the twin deficits," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 279-292, May.
    5. Pene Kalulumia, 2000. "Government Debt, Interest Rates And International Capital Flows: Evidence From Cointegration," Cahiers de recherche 00-03, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    6. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 83-160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Claeys, Peter & Moreno, Rosina & Suriñach, Jordi, 2012. "Debt, interest rates, and integration of financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 48-59.
    8. Cebula, Richard, 1996. "An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Federal Budget Deficit on Ex Ante Real Long-Term, Interest Rates, 1973-1995," MPRA Paper 51414, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    federal budget deficits; interest rates; money supply; net capital inflows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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