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Beating the Spread: Testing the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Robert Arscott, 2023. "Market Efficiency and Censoring Bias in College Football Gambling," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 664-689, June.
  2. Kenneth H. Brown & Fred J. Abraham, 2002. "Testing Market Efficiency in the Major League Baseball Over-Under Betting Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 311-319, November.
  3. Justin L. Davis & Kevin Krieger, 2017. "Preseason bias in the NFL and NBA betting markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 1204-1212, March.
  4. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2013. "Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(2), pages 115-132, April.
  5. Steven G. Sapra, 2008. "Evidence of Betting Market Intraseason Efficiency and Interseason Overreaction to Unexpected NFL Team Performance 1988-2006," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(5), pages 488-503, October.
  6. Jeremy M. Losak & Andrew P. Weinbach & Rodney J. Paul, 2023. "Behavioral Biases in Daily Fantasy Baseball: The Case of the Hot Hand," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(3), pages 374-401, April.
  7. Ray Fair & John Oster, 2002. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2377, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
  8. Justin Cox & Adam L. Schwartz & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2021. "The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 251-273, April.
  9. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  10. Russell Sobel & S. Travis Raines, 2003. "An examination of the empirical derivatives of the favourite-longshot bias in racetrack betting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 371-385.
  11. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2012. "Sportsbook pricing and the behavioral biases of bettors in the NHL," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 123-135, January.
  12. Tim Kuypers, 2000. "Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(11), pages 1353-1363.
  13. Justin Davis & Andy Fodor & Luke McElfresh & Kevin Kreiger, 2015. "Exploiting Week 2 Bias in the NFL Betting Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 9(1), pages 53-67.
  14. Rodney Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach & Kenneth Small, 2014. "The Relationship between Sportsbook Volume, Forecast Accuracy, and Market Efficiency: The NFL and NCAA Football," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 8(2), pages 29-42.
  15. Kyle W. Hampton, 2007. "The Double‐Auction Gambling Market: An Experimental Examination," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 493-532, July.
  16. Jaiho Chung & Joon Ho Hwang, 2010. "An Empirical Examination of the Parimutuel Sports Lottery Market versus the Bookmaker Market," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(4), pages 884-905, April.
  17. Niven Winchester, 2007. "Shifting the 'goal posts': What is the optimal allocation of Super Rugby competition points?," Working Papers 0715, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2007.
  18. Franc J.G.M. Klaasen & Jan R. Magnus, 2006. "Are Economic Agents Successful Optimizers? An Analysis through Service Strategy in Tennis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-048/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  19. Klaassen, F.J.G.M. & Magnus, J.R., 2006. "Are Economic Agents Successful Optimizers? An Analysis Through Strategy in Tennis," Discussion Paper 2006-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  20. Andy Fodor, 2014. "Does Jet Lag Create A Profitable Opportunity For Nfl Bettors?," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 8(1), pages 41-52.
  21. N. Winchester & R. T. Stefani, 2013. "An innovative approach to National Football League standings using bonus points," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 123-134, January.
  22. Golec, Joseph & Tamarkin, Maurry, 1991. "The degree of inefficiency in the football betting market : Statistical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 311-323, December.
  23. Winchester Niven, 2008. "Shifting the 'Goal Posts': Optimizing the Allocation of Competition Points for Sporting Contests," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(4), pages 1-17, October.
  24. Sebastian Bervoets & Bruno Decreuse & Mathieu Faure, 2014. "A Renewed Analysis of Cheating in Contests: Theory and Evidence from Recovery Doping," AMSE Working Papers 1441, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Jun 2015.
  25. Quitzau, Jörn, 2005. "Faktor Zufall als Spielverderber: zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Fußballergebnissen – Wettmärkte als effizienter Informationslieferant," Research Notes 18, Deutsche Bank Research.
  26. Thomas Ashman & R. Alan Bowman & James Lambrinos, 2010. "The Role of Fatigue in NBA Wagering Markets: The Surprising ‘‘Home Disadvantage Situation’’," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(6), pages 602-613, December.
  27. Joshua D. Pitts, 2016. "Determinants of Success in the National Football League’s Postseason," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 86-111, January.
  28. Bryan Boulier & H. O. Stekler & Sarah Amundson, 2006. "Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 279-284.
  29. Leighton Vaughan Williams & David Paton, 1997. "Does information efficiency require a perception of information inefficiency?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(10), pages 615-617.
  30. Klaassen, Franc J.G.M. & Magnus, Jan R., 2009. "The efficiency of top agents: An analysis through service strategy in tennis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 72-85, January.
  31. Michael Sinkey & Trevon Logan, 2014. "Does the Hot Hand Drive the Market? Evidence from College Football Betting Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 583-603, September.
  32. Martin S. Fridson, 1993. "I'Ve Got The Horse Right Here: Sports Betting And Market Efficiency," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 6(2), pages 88-90, June.
  33. Sathya Ramesh & Ragib Mostofa & Marco Bornstein & John Dobelman, 2019. "Beating the House: Identifying Inefficiencies in Sports Betting Markets," Papers 1910.08858, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
  34. Baker, Rose D. & McHale, Ian G., 2013. "Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 122-130.
  35. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2009. "Sportsbook Behavior in the NCAA Football Betting Market: Tests of the Traditional and Levitt Models of Sportsbook Behavior," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(2), pages 21-37, August.
  36. Daniel F. Stone & Jeremy Arkes, 2018. "March Madness? Underreaction To Hot And Cold Hands In Ncaa Basketball," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1724-1747, July.
  37. Vergin, Roger C. & Sosik, John J., 1999. "No place like home: an examination of the home field advantage in gambling strategies in NFL football," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 21-31, January.
  38. Brian Hill, 2018. "Shadow and Spillover Effects of Competition in NBA Playoffs," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(8), pages 1067-1092, December.
  39. Niven Winchester & Raymond T. Stefani, 2009. "An innovative approach to National Football League standings using optimal bonus points," Working Papers 0905, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2009.
  40. Quitzau, Jörn & Vöpel, Henning, 2009. "Der Faktor Zufall im Fußball: Eine empirische Untersuchung für die Saison 2007/08," HWWI Research Papers 1-22, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  41. David Peel & Dennis Thomas, 1997. "Handicaps, outcome uncertainty and attendance demand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(9), pages 567-570.
  42. Michael DiFilippo & Kevin Krieger & Justin Davis & Andy Fodor, 2014. "Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 201-211, April.
  43. Yoon Tae Sung & Scott Tainsky, 2014. "The National Football League Wagering Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 365-384, August.
  44. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
  45. Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2011. "NFL bettor biases and price setting: further tests of the Levitt hypothesis of sportsbook behaviour," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 193-197.
  46. Ray Fair & John Oster, 2002. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2377, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
  47. June Buchanan & Yun Shen, 2021. "Gambling and marketing: a systematic literature review using HistCite," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 2837-2851, June.
  48. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2001. "Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(4), pages 983-995, April.
  49. Rodney J. Paul & Andrew P. Weinbach, 2014. "Market Efficiency and Behavioral Biases in the WNBA Betting Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-10, April.
  50. Timothy J. Brailsford & Philip K. Gray & Stephen A. Easton & Stephen F. Gray, 1995. "The Efficiency of Australian Football Betting Markets," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 20(2), pages 167-195, December.
  51. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Rodney Ramcharan, 2010. "What Can International Cricket Teach Us About the Role of Luck in Labor Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2010/225, International Monetary Fund.
  52. Miller, Thomas W. & Rapach, David E., 2013. "An intra-week efficiency analysis of bookie-quoted NFL betting lines in NYC," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 10-23.
  53. Rodney J Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2012. "Wagering Preferences Of Nfl Bettors: Determinants Of Betting Volume," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(1), pages 42-55.
  54. Frank Daumann & Markus Breuer, 2011. "The Role of Information in Professional Football and the German Football Betting Market," Chapters, in: Wladimir Andreff (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Sports Economics, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  55. Gray, Philip K & Gray, Stephen F, 1997. "Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence from the NFL Sports Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1725-1737, September.
  56. Sean Wever & David Aadland, 2012. "Herd behaviour and underdogs in the NFL," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 93-97, January.
  57. Kyle J. Kain & Trevon D. Logan, 2014. "Are Sports Betting Markets Prediction Markets?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(1), pages 45-63, February.
  58. Evan Osborne, 2001. "Efficient Markets? Don’t Bet on It," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 2(1), pages 50-61, February.
  59. Adi Schnytzer, 2011. "The Prediction Market for the Australian Football League," Working Papers 2011-15, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
  60. Ray C. Fair & John F. Oster, 2007. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(1), pages 3-18, February.
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