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Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?

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  • Linda M. Woodland
  • Bill M. Woodland

Abstract

Sports betting and racetrack markets continue to provide researchers with opportunities to test the efficient market hypothesis. This paper investigates the efficiency of a relatively new sports betting market, the National Hockey League, for 1990‐1996. The market is found to be somewhat inefficient and simple wagering strategies are identified that result in profitable returns. Consistent with previous research for football and baseball, bettors in hockey are inclined to overbet favorites relative to their observed chance of winning. Interestingly, the market does not appear to be converging to efficiency.

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  • Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2001. "Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(4), pages 983-995, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:67:y:2001:i:4:p:983-995
    DOI: 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2001.tb00385.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2003. "The Reverse Favourite–longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in Major League Baseball: An Update," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 113-123, April.
    2. Jaiho Chung & Joon Ho Hwang, 2010. "An Empirical Examination of the Parimutuel Sports Lottery Market versus the Bookmaker Market," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(4), pages 884-905, April.
    3. David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.
    4. Philip W. S. Newall & Dominic Cortis, 2021. "Are Sports Bettors Biased toward Longshots, Favorites, or Both? A Literature Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
    5. David Forrest & Ian Mchale, 2007. "Anyone for Tennis (Betting)?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 751-768.
    6. Jinook Jeong & Jee Young Kim & Yoon Jae Ro, 2019. "On the efficiency of racetrack betting market: a new test for the favourite-longshot bias," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(54), pages 5817-5828, November.
    7. Frank Daumann & Markus Breuer, 2011. "The Role of Information in Professional Football and the German Football Betting Market," Chapters, in: Wladimir Andreff (ed.), Contemporary Issues in Sports Economics, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Michael Cain & David Peel, 2004. "The utility of gambling and the favourite-longshot bias," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 379-390.

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