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Efficient Markets? Don’t Bet on It

Author

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  • Evan Osborne

    (Wright State University)

Abstract

This article tests the efficient-markets hypothesis by looking at profits in National Football League (NFL) betting markets. The author tests whether successful betting strategies exist when points scored and allowed earlier in a season can outperform the betting line in predicting the margin of victory in NFL games and finds that profitable strategies exist. In addition, the author finds that over the course of a season, bettors do imperfectly incorporate information about team strength and that NFL victory margins are a highly variable process.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Osborne, 2001. "Efficient Markets? Don’t Bet on It," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 2(1), pages 50-61, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:2:y:2001:i:1:p:50-61
    DOI: 10.1177/152700250100200105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth H. Brown & Fred J. Abraham, 2002. "Testing Market Efficiency in the Major League Baseball Over-Under Betting Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 311-319, November.
    2. Justin Cox & Adam L. Schwartz & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2021. "The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 251-273, April.
    3. Benjamin Waggoner & Daniel Wines & Brian P. Soebbing & Chad S. Seifried & Jean Michael Martinez, 2014. "“Hot Hand” in the National Basketball Association Point Spread Betting Market: A 34-Year Analysis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-12, November.
    4. Kenneth Linna & Evan Moore & Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2014. "The Effects of the Clock and Kickoff Rule Changes on Actual and Market-Based Expected Scoring in NCAA Football," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-14, April.
    5. Alessandro Innocenti & Tommaso Nannicini & Roberto Ricciuti, 2021. "The Importance of Betting Early," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Bryan Boulier & H. O. Stekler & Sarah Amundson, 2006. "Testing the efficiency of the National Football League betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 279-284.
    7. Yoon Tae Sung & Scott Tainsky, 2014. "The National Football League Wagering Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 365-384, August.
    8. Fragiskos Archontakis & Evan Osborne, 2007. "Playing It Safe? A Fibonacci Strategy for Soccer Betting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(3), pages 295-308, June.

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