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Can Asset Markets Be Manipulated? A Field Experiment with Racetrack Betting

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  1. Rajkamal Iyer & Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Erzo F. P. Luttmer & Kelly Shue, 2016. "Screening Peers Softly: Inferring the Quality of Small Borrowers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1554-1577, June.
  2. Omar Al-Ubaydli & John List, 2015. "Do Natural Field Experiments Afford Researchers More or Less Control than Laboratory Experiments? A Simple Model," Artefactual Field Experiments 00458, The Field Experiments Website.
  3. Glenn W. Harrison & John A. List, 2004. "Field Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1009-1055, December.
  4. Paul Rhode & Koleman Strumpf, 2006. "Manipulating political stock markets: A field experiment and a century of observational data," Natural Field Experiments 00325, The Field Experiments Website.
  5. Medrano, Luis Angel & Vives, Xavier, 2001. "Strategic Behavior and Price Discovery," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 32(2), pages 221-248, Summer.
  6. Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
  7. Coleman, Les, 2014. "Why finance theory fails to survive contact with the real world: A fund manager perspective," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 226-236.
  8. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Romain Gauriot Author e-mail: romain.gauriot@nyu.edu & Lionel Page Author e-mail: lionel.page@uts.edu.au, 2021. "How Market Prices React to Information: Evidence from Binary Options Markets," Working Papers 20200058, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Oct 2021.
  10. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2013. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 657-687, Elsevier.
  11. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2022. "Manipulation and (Mis)trust in Prediction Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6716-6732, September.
  12. Deck, Cary & Lin, Shengle & Porter, David, 2013. "Affecting policy by manipulating prediction markets: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 48-62.
  13. Bruno Biais & Pierre Hillion & Chester Spatt, 1999. "Price Discovery and Learning during the Preopening Period in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(6), pages 1218-1248, December.
  14. Patrick Bajari & Ali Hortaçsu, 2004. "Economic Insights from Internet Auctions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(2), pages 457-486, June.
  15. Rachel Croson & James Sundali, 2005. "The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 195-209, May.
  16. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 107-126, Spring.
  17. Peter Cramton & Luciano I. de Castro, 2009. "Prediction Markets to Forecast Electricity Demand," Discussion Papers 1527, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  18. Johan Almenberg & Ken Kittlitz & Thomas Pfeiffer, 2009. "An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(12), pages 1-7, December.
  19. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  20. Galanis, S. & Ioannou, C. & Kotronis, S., 2019. "Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 20/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
  21. Jan Hansen & Carsten Schmidt & Martin Strobel, 2004. "Manipulation in political stock markets - preconditions and evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 459-463.
  22. Tālis J. Putniņš, 2012. "Market Manipulation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 952-967, December.
  23. Levitt, Steven D. & List, John A., 2009. "Field experiments in economics: The past, the present, and the future," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-18, January.
  24. Spyros Galanis & Christos A. Ioannou & Stelios Kotronis, 2023. "Supplementary appendix to Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 2023_05, Durham University Business School.
  25. Lionel Page & Robert T. Clemen, 2013. "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well‐Calibrated Probability Forecasts?-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(568), pages 491-513, May.
  26. Hausch, Donald B. & Ziemba, W.T. (ed.), 2008. "Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780444507440.
  27. Legge, Stefan & Schmid, Lukas, 2016. "Media attention and betting markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 304-333.
  28. Boris Maciejovsky & David V. Budescu, 2020. "Too Much Trust in Group Decisions: Uncovering Hidden Profiles by Groups and Markets," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(6), pages 1497-1514, November.
  29. Ottaviani, Marco & Sørensen, Peter Norman, 2003. "Late Informed Betting and the Favourite-Longshot Bias," CEPR Discussion Papers 4092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. John Duffy & Eric O'N. Fisher, 2005. "Sunspots in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 510-529, June.
  31. Zonna, Davide, 2016. "Sprechi di cibo e tentativi di riduzione. Un caso sperimentale [Avoiding food waste. A field experiment]," MPRA Paper 76097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Carole Comerton-Forde & Tālis Putniņš, 2011. "Pricing accuracy, liquidity and trader behavior with closing price manipulation," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 14(1), pages 110-131, March.
  33. Hanson, Robin & Oprea, Ryan & Porter, David, 2006. "Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 449-459, August.
  34. Bergemann, Dirk & Ottaviani, Marco, 2021. "Information Markets and Nonmarkets," CEPR Discussion Papers 16459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Axelrod, Boris S. & Kulick, Ben J. & Plott, Charles R. & Roust, Kevin A., 2009. "The design of improved parimutuel-type information aggregation mechanisms: Inaccuracies and the long-shot bias as disequilibrium phenomena," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 170-181, February.
  36. Galarza, Francisco & Power, Mauricio, 2012. "Economía experimental: Nuevas metodologías para analizar el comportamiento individual [Experimental Economics: New Methodologies to Analyze the Individual Behavior]," MPRA Paper 114877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Omar Al-Ubaydli & John List, 2015. "Control in Experiments: A Simple Model," Artefactual Field Experiments 00397, The Field Experiments Website.
  38. Kyle C. Meng, 2017. "Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 748-784, March.
  39. Robin Hanson & Ryan Oprea, 2009. "A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 304-314, April.
  40. Eaves, James & Williams, Jeffrey & Power, Gabriel J., 2016. "Do traders strategically time their pledges during real-world Walrasian auctions?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 109-118.
  41. Paul Resnick & Richard Zeckhauser & John Swanson & Kate Lockwood, 2006. "The value of reputation on eBay: A controlled experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 9(2), pages 79-101, June.
  42. Sanvicente, A. Z., 2002. "A Guerra entre Comprados e Vendidos no Mercado de Opções de Compra da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_44, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  43. Wiesen, Taylor, 2023. "Aggregate earnings and market expectations in United States presidential election prediction markets," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  44. Jiang, Guolin & Mahoney, Paul G. & Mei, Jianping, 2005. "Market manipulation: A comprehensive study of stock pools," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 147-170, July.
  45. Crowley, Steve & Sade, Orly, 2004. "Does the option to cancel an order in a double auction market matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 89-97, April.
  46. Paul W. Rhode & Koleman S. Strumpf, 2004. "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 127-141, Spring.
  47. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
  48. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  49. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.
  50. Veiga, Helena & Vorsatz, Marc, 2008. "Aggregation and dissemination of information in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws084110, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  51. Patrick Bajari & Ali Hortacsu, 2003. "Economic Insights from Internet Auctions: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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