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Predictable Dynamics in the S&P 500 Index Options Implied Volatility Surface

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Cited by:

  1. Kearney, Fearghal & Shang, Han Lin & Sheenan, Lisa, 2019. "Implied volatility surface predictability: The case of commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  2. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2010. "Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1175-1188, June.
  3. Chen, Ying & Han, Qian & Niu, Linlin, 2018. "Forecasting the term structure of option implied volatility: The power of an adaptive method," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 157-177.
  4. Dunis, Christian & Kellard, Neil M. & Snaith, Stuart, 2013. "Forecasting EUR–USD implied volatility: The case of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4943-4957.
  5. Shang, Han Lin & Kearney, Fearghal, 2022. "Dynamic functional time-series forecasts of foreign exchange implied volatility surfaces," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1025-1049.
  6. Francesco Audrino & Dominik Colagelo, 2007. "Forecasting Implied Volatility Surfaces," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-42, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  7. Kapetanios, George & Konstantinidi, Eirini & Neumann, Michael & Skiadopoulos, George, 2019. "Jumps in option prices and their determinants: Real-time evidence from the E-mini S&P 500 options market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
  8. Bernales, Alejandro & Chen, Louisa & Valenzuela, Marcela, 2017. "Learning and forecasts about option returns through the volatility risk premium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 312-330.
  9. Liu, Xialu & Xiao, Han & Chen, Rong, 2016. "Convolutional autoregressive models for functional time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 263-282.
  10. Georgios Chalamandaris & Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2013. "Explanatory Factors and Causality in the Dynamics of Volatility Surfaces Implied from OTC Asian–Pacific Currency Options," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 327-358, March.
  11. Guo, Biao & Han, Qian & Lin, Hai, 2015. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities," Working Paper Series 20148, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  12. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 326-342.
  13. Chunbo Liu & Cheng Zhang & Zhiping Zhou, 2018. "From funding liquidity to market liquidity: Evidence from the index options market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(10), pages 1189-1205, October.
  14. Le, Van & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2014. "Forecasting option smile dynamics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 32-45.
  15. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2011. "How important is the term structure in implied volatility surface modeling? Evidence from foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 623-640, June.
  16. Chalamandaris, Georgios & Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2012. "Exploring the role of the realized return distribution in the formation of the implied volatility smile," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1028-1044.
  17. Michel van der Wel & Sait R. Ozturk & Dick van Dijk, 2015. "Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface," CREATES Research Papers 2015-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  18. Mihir Dash, 2019. "Modeling of implied volatility surfaces of nifty index options," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-11, September.
  19. Le, Van & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2010. "The role of trading volume in volatility forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 533-555, December.
  20. Hollstein, Fabian & Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2019. "Asset prices and “the devil(s) you know”," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 20-35.
  21. Wenyong Zhang & Lingfei Li & Gongqiu Zhang, 2021. "A Two-Step Framework for Arbitrage-Free Prediction of the Implied Volatility Surface," Papers 2106.07177, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  22. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
  23. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "How does the market variance risk premium vary over time? Evidence from S&P 500 variance swap investment returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-75.
  24. Yue, Tian & Li, Lu-Lu & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2024. "Smirking in the energy market: Evidence from the Chinese crude oil options market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  25. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George & Tzagkaraki, Emilia, 2008. "Can the evolution of implied volatility be forecasted? Evidence from European and US implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2401-2411, November.
  26. Pascal François & Rémi Galarneau‐Vincent & Geneviève Gauthier & Frédéric Godin, 2022. "Venturing into uncharted territory: An extensible implied volatility surface model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1912-1940, October.
  27. Markopoulou, Chryssa & Skintzi, Vasiliki & Refenes, Apostolos, 2016. "On the predictability of model-free implied correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 527-547.
  28. Chen, Ding & Guo, Biao & Zhou, Guofu, 2023. "Firm fundamentals and the cross-section of implied volatility shapes," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  29. Wang, Jinzhong & Chen, Shijiang & Tao, Qizhi & Zhang, Ting, 2017. "Modelling the implied volatility surface based on Shanghai 50ETF options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 295-301.
  30. Shengli Chen & Zili Zhang, 2019. "Forecasting Implied Volatility Smile Surface via Deep Learning and Attention Mechanism," Papers 1912.11059, arXiv.org.
  31. Jia, Xiaolan & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2023. "Carr and Wu’s (2020) framework in the oil ETF option market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  32. Alejandro Bernales & Diether W. Beuermann & Gonzalo Cortazar, 2014. "Thinly traded securities and risk management," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1 Year 20), pages 5-48, June.
  33. Psaradellis, Ioannis & Sermpinis, Georgios, 2016. "Modelling and trading the U.S. implied volatility indices. Evidence from the VIX, VXN and VXD indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1268-1283.
  34. Biao Guo & Qian Han & Hai Lin, 2018. "Are there gains from using information over the surface of implied volatilities?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 645-672, June.
  35. Shi, Yukun & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Xu, Yaofei & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Market co-movement between credit default swap curves and option volatility surfaces," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  36. Doshi, Hitesh & Ericsson, Jan & Fournier, Mathieu & Seo, Sang Byung, 2024. "The risk and return of equity and credit index options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  37. Georgios Chalamandaris & Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2010. "The correlation structure of FX option markets before and since the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 73-84.
  38. Andrada-Félix, Julián & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2016. "Combining nearest neighbor predictions and model-based predictions of realized variance: Does it pay?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 695-715.
  39. Jiayi Luo & Cindy Long Yu, 2023. "The Application of Symbolic Regression on Identifying Implied Volatility Surface," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-28, April.
  40. Guidolin, Massimo & Wang, Kai, 2023. "The empirical performance of option implied volatility surface-driven optimal portfolios," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
  41. Yue, Tian & Gehricke, Sebastian A. & Zhang, Jin E. & Pan, Zheyao, 2021. "The implied volatility smirk in the Chinese equity options market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  42. Bedendo, Mascia & Hodges, Stewart D., 2009. "The dynamics of the volatility skew: A Kalman filter approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1156-1165, June.
  43. Chen, Si & Zhou, Zhen & Li, Shenghong, 2016. "An efficient estimate and forecast of the implied volatility surface: A nonlinear Kalman filter approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 655-664.
  44. Xiaolan Jia & Xinfeng Ruan & Jin E. Zhang, 2021. "The implied volatility smirk of commodity options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 72-104, January.
  45. Jiahao Weng & Yan Xie, 2024. "Degree of Irrationality: Sentiment and Implied Volatility Surface," Papers 2405.11730, arXiv.org.
  46. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2015. "Learning to smile: Can rational learning explain predictable dynamics in the implied volatility surface?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-37.
  47. Goulas, Lambros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2012. "Are freight futures markets efficient? Evidence from IMAREX," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 644-659.
  48. Helena Chuliá & Hipòlit Torró, 2008. "The economic value of volatility transmission between the stock and bond markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1066-1094, November.
  49. Pham, Linh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Green bonds and implied volatilities: Dynamic causality, spillovers, and implications for portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  50. Zihao Chen & Yuyang Li & Cindy Long Yu, 2024. "Modeling Implied Volatility Surface Using B-Splines with Time-Dependent Coefficients Predicted by Tree-Based Machine Learning Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-30, April.
  51. Quaye, Enoch & Tunaru, Radu, 2022. "The stock implied volatility and the implied dividend volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  52. Guo, Biao & Han, Qian & Lin, Hai, 2015. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities," Working Paper Series 6189, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  53. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Beuermann, Diether & Bernales, Alejandro, 2013. "Risk Management with Thinly Traded Securities: Methodology and Implementation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4647, Inter-American Development Bank.
  54. Lim, Kian Guan & Chen, Ying & Yap, Nelson K.L., 2019. "Intraday information from S&P 500 Index futures options," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 29-55.
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