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Forecast Combination Across Estimation Windows

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  2. Zhang, Dongna & Dai, Xingyu & Xue, Jianhao, 2024. "Incorporating weather information into commodity portfolio optimization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  3. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
  4. Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Pick, Andreas, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 685-707.
  5. Tae‐Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Forecasting Under Structural Breaks Using Improved Weighted Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1485-1501, December.
  6. Luca Nocciola, "undated". "Finite sample forecast properties and window length under breaks in cointegrated systems," Discussion Papers 19/07, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  7. Sun, Yuying & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Penalized time-varying model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1355-1377.
  8. Taylor, Nick, 2014. "The rise and fall of technical trading rule success," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 286-302.
  9. M. Mogliani & T. Ferrière, 2016. "Rationality of announcements, business cycle asymmetry, and predictability of revisions. The case of French GDP," Working papers 600, Banque de France.
  10. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
  11. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schüssler, 2014. "Forecasting Exchange Rates under Model and Parameter Uncertainty," CQE Working Papers 3214, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  12. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2013. "Robust Forecast Methods and Monitoring during Structural Change," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 3-27, October.
  13. Davide De Gaetano, 2016. "Forecast Combinations For Realized Volatility In Presence Of Structural Breaks," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0208, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  14. Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.
  15. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1409, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  16. Hännikäinen Jari, 2017. "Selection of an Estimation Window in the Presence of Data Revisions and Recent Structural Breaks," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, January.
  17. Davide De Gaetano, 2018. "Forecast Combinations in the Presence of Structural Breaks: Evidence from U.S. Equity Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, March.
  18. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Selection of Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
  19. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
  20. Davide De Gaetano, 2017. "Forecasting With Garch Models Under Structural Breaks: An Approach Based On Combinations Across Estimation Windows," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0219, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  21. Knut Are Aastveit & Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 931-951, August.
  22. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2019. "Large time‐varying parameter VARs: A nonparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1027-1049, November.
  23. Beckmann, Joscha & Schüssler, Rainer, 2016. "Forecasting exchange rates under parameter and model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 267-288.
  24. Nowotarski, Jakub & Liu, Bidong & Weron, Rafał & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 40-49.
  25. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2013. "Property Market Modelling and Forecasting: A Case for Simplicity," ERES eres2013_10, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  26. Till Weigt & Bernd Wilfling, 2021. "An approach to increasing forecast‐combination accuracy through VAR error modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 686-699, July.
  27. Tae‐Hwy Lee & Shahnaz Parsaeian & Aman Ullah, 2022. "Optimal forecast under structural breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 965-987, August.
  28. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2016. "Forecasting city arrivals with Google Analytics," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-212.
  29. Karstanje, Dennis & Sojli, Elvira & Tham, Wing Wah & van der Wel, Michel, 2013. "Economic valuation of liquidity timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5073-5087.
  30. De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013. "Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
  31. Gantungalag Altansukh & Denise R. Osborn, 2022. "Using structural break inference for forecasting time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 1-41, July.
  32. Joscha Beckmann & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis & Rainer Alexander Schüssler, 2020. "Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 410-421, June.
  33. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
  34. Andre Jungmittag, 2016. "Combination of Forecasts across Estimation Windows: An Application to Air Travel Demand," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 373-380, July.
  35. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  36. Mwasi Paza Mboya & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2023. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of discrete structural breaks under long memory," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1889-1908, November.
  37. Hongwei Zhang & Qiang He & Ben Jacobsen & Fuwei Jiang, 2020. "Forecasting stock returns with model uncertainty and parameter instability," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 629-644, August.
  38. Rendon-Sanchez, Juan F. & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2019. "Structural combination of seasonal exponential smoothing forecasts applied to load forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(3), pages 916-924.
  39. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
  40. Tian, Jing & Anderson, Heather M., 2014. "Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 161-175.
  41. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2022. "A procedure for upgrading linear-convex combination forecasts with an application to volatility prediction," CQE Working Papers 9722, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  42. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
  43. repec:wrk:wrkemf:33 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Dai, Hongyan & Xiao, Qin & Chen, Songlin & Zhou, Weihua, 2023. "Data-driven demand forecast for O2O operations: An adaptive hierarchical incremental approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
  45. Gunter, Ulrich & Önder, Irem, 2015. "Forecasting international city tourism demand for Paris: Accuracy of uni- and multivariate models employing monthly data," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 123-135.
  46. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2016. "Multistep forecasting in the presence of location shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 121-137.
  47. repec:wrk:wrkemf:13 is not listed on IDEAS
  48. Kiki Verico, 2021. "Global Pandemic 2020: Indonesia’s Output Gap and Middle-Income Trap Scenario," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 202157, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised 2021.
  49. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
  50. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Pranovich, M., 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks (Updated 14 November 2011)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1163, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  51. Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu & Rossi, Barbara, 2017. "Rolling window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 55-67.
  52. Zhang, Xiaomeng & Zhang, Xinyu, 2023. "Optimal model averaging based on forward-validation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
  53. Huang, Tao & Fildes, Robert & Soopramanien, Didier, 2019. "Forecasting retailer product sales in the presence of structural change," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 459-470.
  54. Zongwu Cai & Gunawan, 2023. "A Combination Forecast for Nonparametric Models with Structural Breaks," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202310, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2023.
  55. Yoontae Jeon & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2017. "Time-Varying Window Length for Correlation Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-29, December.
  56. Luca Nocciola, 2022. "Finite Sample Forecast Properties and Window Length Under Breaks in Cointegrated Systems," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 167-196, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  57. Llewellyn, Mary & Ross, Gordon & Ryan-Saha, Joshua, 2023. "COVID-era forecasting: Google trends and window and model averaging," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  58. Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. Ulrich Gunter, 2019. "Estimating and forecasting with a two-country DSGE model of the Euro area and the USA: the merits of diverging interest-rate rules," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1283-1323, April.
  60. Davide De Gaetano, 2018. "Forecast Combinations for Structural Breaks in Volatility: Evidence from BRICS Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, October.
  61. Arvydas Jadevicius & Brian Sloan & Andrew Brown, 2012. "Examination of property forecasting models - accuracy and its improvement through combination forecasting," ERES eres2012_082, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  62. Biolsi, Christopher, 2021. "Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  63. Joscha Beckmann & Rainer Schüssler, 2014. "Forecasting Equity Premia using Bayesian Dynamic Model Averaging," CQE Working Papers 2914, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
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