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On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts
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- Jeffrey Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2013.
"Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(2), pages 247-272, June.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Jesse Schreger, "undated". "Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone," Working Paper 83166, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Jesse Schreger, "undated". "Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone," Working Paper 83126, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Schreger, Jesse M, 2013. "Over-optimistic Official Forecasts and Fiscal Rules in the Eurozone," Scholarly Articles 9804488, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008.
"Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges,"
Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
- Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 843, European Central Bank.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2011.
"A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries,"
Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 407-430, September.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Working Paper Series rwp11-014, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Scholarly Articles 8705907, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Lesson From the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Scholarly Articles 4726595, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2015. "Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 287-307, September.
- João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "European commission’s fiscal forecasts in CEE countries: a thorough assessment," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 161-183, July.
- Guido Baldi, 2016.
"Fiscal policy rules, budget deficits, and forecasting biases,"
Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 185-194, April.
- Baldi, Guido, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Rules, Budget Deficits, and Forecasting Biases," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 185-194.
- Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017.
"Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States,"
FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
- Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," CESifo Working Paper Series 6310, CESifo.
- Chatagny, Florian, 2015.
"Incentive effects of fiscal rules on the finance minister's behavior: Evidence from revenue projections in Swiss Cantons,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 184-200.
- Florian Chatagny, 2013. "Incentive Effects of Fiscal Rules on the Finance Minister's Behaviour: Evidence from Revenue Projections in Swiss Cantons," KOF Working papers 13-347, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Florian Chatagny, 2015. "Incentive Effects of Fiscal Rules on the Finance Minister's Behaviour: Evidence from Revenue Projections in Swiss Cantons," CESifo Working Paper Series 5223, CESifo.
- Ariel Alexi & Teddy Lazebnik & Labib Shami, 2024. "Microfounded Tax Revenue Forecast Model with Heterogeneous Population and Genetic Algorithm Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(5), pages 1705-1734, May.
- Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017.
"On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries,"
Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
- Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2015. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts – Evidence from OECD countries," ifo Working Paper Series 198, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Jochimsen, Beate & Lehmann, Robert, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Munich Reprints in Economics 55036, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Manuel Coutinho Pereira, 2009.
"A New Measure of Fiscal Shocks Based on Budget Forecasts and its Implications,"
Working Papers
w200921, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Pereira, Manuel C, 2009. "A new measure of fiscal shocks based on budget forecasts and its implications," MPRA Paper 17475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dopke, Jorg, 2001.
"Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 181-201.
- Döpke, Jörg, 2000. "Macroeconomic Forecasts and the Nature of Economic Shocks in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 972, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2011.
"Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications," Scholarly Articles 8705906, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," NBER Working Papers 17239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
- Marcell Göttert & Robert Lehmann, 2021. "Tax Revenue Forecast Errors: Wrong Predictions of the Tax Base or the Elasticity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9148, CESifo.
- Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2018.
"Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 933-945, December.
- Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-17, CIRANO.
- Zidong An & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2020.
"On the performance of US fiscal forecasts: government vs. private information,"
Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(2), pages 367-391, June.
- Zidong An & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the Performance of US Fiscal Forecasts: Government vs. Private Information," Working Papers REM 2020/0130, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Chatagny, Florian & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2015. "Evaluating rationality of level and growth rate forecasts of direct tax revenues under flexible loss function: Evidence from Swiss cantons," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 65-68.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2013.
"A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile,"
Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391,
Central Bank of Chile.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 39-78, August.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 604, Central Bank of Chile.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," CID Working Papers 216, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," NBER Working Papers 16945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2010.
"Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance,"
Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 313-340, September.
- Thiess Büttner & Björn Kauder, 2009. "Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance," CESifo Working Paper Series 2628, CESifo.
- Kitchen, John, 2003.
"Observed Relationships Between Economic and Technical Receipts Revisions in Federal Budget Projections,"
National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 56(2), pages 337-353, June.
- Kitchen, John, 2003. "Observed Relationships Between Economic And Technical Receipts Revisions In Federal Budget Projections," MPRA Paper 22004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Alan J. Auerbach, 2002.
"Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-150.
- Alan Auerbach, 2002. "Is There a Role for Discretionary Fiscal Policy?," NBER Working Papers 9306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/014, International Monetary Fund.
- Capistrán, Carlos, 2008.
"Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1415-1427, November.
- Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics.
- Capistrán Carlos, 2006. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Working Papers 2006-14, Banco de México.
- Carmona, Carlos Capistran, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6v28v0b6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012.
"Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?,"
Working Papers
1233, Banco de España.
- Javier J. Perez & Rossana Merola, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," EcoMod2012 4694, EcoMod.
- Breuer Christian, 2015.
"On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany,"
Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(1), pages 22-40, February.
- Christian Breuer, 2014. "On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany," ifo Working Paper Series 176, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2023.
"Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 472-492, June.
- Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Pérez, Javier J & Paredes, Joan, 2015. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10553, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Pérez, Javier J. & Paredes, Joan, 2015. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," Working Paper Series 1834, European Central Bank.
- Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez & Gabriel Perez-Quirós, 2015. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," Working Papers 1508, Banco de España.
- Baldi, Guido, 2016.
"Fiscal Policy Rules, Budget Deficits, and Forecasting Biases,"
EconStor Open Access Articles,
ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 185-194.
- Guido Baldi, 2016. "Fiscal policy rules, budget deficits, and forecasting biases," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 185-194, June.
- Thiess Büttner & Björn Kauder, 2008. "Methods of Revenue Forecasting: An International Comparison," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 44, July.
- Mr. Mikhail Golosov & Mr. John R King, 2002. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 2002/236, International Monetary Fund.
- Florian Chatagny & Nils Soguel, 2012.
"The effect of tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal balance: evidence from the Swiss cantons,"
International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 319-337, June.
- Florian Chatagny & Nils Soguel, 2012. "The effect of tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal balance: evidence from the Swiss cantons," Post-Print halshs-00760272, HAL.
- Ryan D. Edwards, 2010. "A Review of War Costs in Iraq and Afghanistan," NBER Working Papers 16163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stanislav Klazar, 2006. "Tax Revenue Prediction under Condition of Imperfect Control over Tax-Collecting Authority [Predikce daňových příjmů v podmínkách nedokonalé kontroly daňových úřadů]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(3), pages 48-62.
- Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017.
"On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries,"
Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
- Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2015. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts – Evidence from OECD countries," ifo Working Paper Series 198, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Jochimsen, Beate Regina & Lehmann, Robert, 2015. "Do OECD countries cheat with their national tax revenue forecasts?," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113089, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Baca, Adriana Cabrera, 2022. "Fiscal opacity and reduction of income inequality through taxation: Effects on economic growth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 69-82.
- João Tovar Jalles & Bryn Battersby & Rachel Lee, 2024. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Announcements: Early Evidence from COVID-19," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 623-658, July.
- Auerbach, Alan J., 2001. "US fiscal policy in a (brief?) era of surpluses," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 371-386, December.
- Stijn Goeminne & Benny Geys & Carine Smolders, 2008.
"Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities,"
International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(3), pages 297-315, June.
- Goeminne, Stijn & Geys, Benny & Smolders, Carine, 2007. "Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities [Politische Zersplitterung und erwartete Steuereinnahmen: Empirische Belege aus flämischen Gemeinden]," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2007-03, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
- António Afonso & Rui Carvalho, 2014. "Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/02, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013.
"Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
- Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Working Papers 1233, Banco de España.
- Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2014. "Fiscal Forecast Errors: Governments Versus Independent Agencies?," Papers RB2014/1/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Thiess Büttner & Björn Kauder, 2008. "Steuerschätzung im internationalen Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(14), pages 29-35, July.
- Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2022. "The Efficiency of the Government’s Revenue Projections," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-122, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
- T. P. Koirala Ph.D., 2012. "Government Revenue Forecasting in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 24(2), pages 47-60, October.
- Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Annette J Kyobe & Mr. M. Cangiano, 2005. "The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2005/002, International Monetary Fund.
- T. P. Koirala, Ph.D., 2012. "Government Revenue Forecasting in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 24(2), pages 47-60, October.
- Boukari, Mamadou & Veiga, Francisco José, 2018.
"Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach,"
Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1030-1045.
- Mamadou Boukari & Francisco José Veiga, 2018. "Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach," Post-Print hal-01817910, HAL.
- Jiří Šindelář, 2022. "The accuracy of state budget planning: case of the Czech Republic [Úspěšnost plánování státního rozpočtu ČR]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(1), pages 35-58.
- Imtiaz Bhatti & Marvin Phaup, 2015. "Budgeting for Fiscal Uncertainty and Bias: A Federal Process Proposal," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 89-105, June.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011.
"A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile,"
Working Paper Series
11-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Leal Linares, Teresa & Pérez García, Javier J., 2011. "Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado/The Performance of the Budgetary Target of the Central Government in Spain," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 909(14á.)-9, Diciembre.
- William Easterly, 2012. "The Role of Growth Slowdowns and Forecast Errors in Public Debt Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 151-173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.