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The Role of Growth Slowdowns and Forecast Errors in Public Debt Crises

In: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis

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  • William Easterly

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  • William Easterly, 2012. "The Role of Growth Slowdowns and Forecast Errors in Public Debt Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 151-173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12640
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Easterly William R., 2001. "Growth Implosions and Debt Explosions: Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-26, February.
    2. Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts [‘Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 492-534.
    3. Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/42, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    4. Auerbach, Alan J., 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(4), pages 765-782, December.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach, 1994. "The US Fiscal Problem: Where We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We're Going," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 141-186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2009. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(2), pages 133-173, July-Dece.
    7. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
    8. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
    9. Mr. Martin Mühleisen & Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak & Mr. Stephan Danninger & Mr. David Hauner & Mr. Bennett W Sutton, 2005. "How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2005/066, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts: Do supranational forecasts rather than government forecasts make a difference?," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(2), pages 185-209.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aromí, J. Daniel, 2019. "Medium term growth forecasts: Experts vs. simple models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1085-1099.

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