IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/22004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Observed Relationships Between Economic And Technical Receipts Revisions In Federal Budget Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Kitchen, John

Abstract

This paper presents results illustrating a close relationship between economic and technical errors in receipts projections made by the OMB and the CBO. The specific source appears to be the relationship between economic and technical errors for personal income tax receipts. Receipts projections generally are efficient in the use of prior information, although some evidence exists to suggest that OMB economic receipts revisions are related to prior economic information. The results indicate a greater sensitivity of changes in receipts projections to changes in the performance of the economy than typically realized.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitchen, John, 2003. "Observed Relationships Between Economic And Technical Receipts Revisions In Federal Budget Projections," MPRA Paper 22004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22004/1/MPRA_paper_22004.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Donihue, Michael & Kitchen, John, 1999. "The Troika process: Economic models and macroeconomic policy in the USA," MPRA Paper 22216, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Campbell, Bryan & Ghysels, Eric, 1995. "Federal Budget Projections: A Nonparametric Assessment of Bias and Efficiency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 17-31, February.
    3. Auerbach, Alan J., 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(4), pages 765-782, December.
    4. Calomiris, Charles W. & Hassett, Kevin A., 2002. "Marginal Tax Rate Cuts and the Public Tax Debate," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(1), pages 119-131, March.
    5. Kasten, Richard A. & Weiner, David & Woodward, G. Thomas, 1999. "What Made Receipts Boom and When Will They Go Bust?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(3), pages 339-348, September.
    6. Kasten, Richard A. & Weiner, David & Woodward, G. Thomas, 1999. "What Made Receipts Boom and When Will They Go Bust?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 3), pages 339-48, September.
    7. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Calomiris, Charles W. & Hassett, Kevin A., 2002. "Marginal Tax Rate Cuts and the Public Tax Debate," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 55(N. 1), pages 119-131, March.
    9. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Reports 42905, Congressional Budget Office.
    10. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022," Reports 43539, Congressional Budget Office.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kitchen, John, 2003. "A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions," MPRA Paper 21070, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    2. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Baca, Adriana Cabrera, 2022. "Fiscal opacity and reduction of income inequality through taxation: Effects on economic growth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 69-82.
    3. Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2018. "Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 933-945, December.
    4. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
    5. Zidong An & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the performance of US fiscal forecasts: government vs. private information," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(2), pages 367-391, June.
    6. Mr. Mikhail Golosov & Mr. John R King, 2002. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 2002/236, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Dopke, Jorg, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 181-201.
    8. Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
    9. Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2022. "The Efficiency of the Government’s Revenue Projections," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-122, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. repec:prg:jnlcfu:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:id:572 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 407-430, September.
    12. Thiess Büttner & Björn Kauder, 2008. "Methods of Revenue Forecasting: An International Comparison," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 44.
    13. Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2023. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 472-492, June.
    14. João Tovar Jalles & Bryn Battersby & Rachel Lee, 2024. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Announcements: Early Evidence from COVID-19," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 623-658, July.
    15. Stijn Goeminne & Benny Geys & Carine Smolders, 2008. "Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(3), pages 297-315, June.
    16. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
    17. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    19. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    20. Imtiaz Bhatti & Marvin Phaup, 2015. "Budgeting for Fiscal Uncertainty and Bias: A Federal Process Proposal," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 89-105, June.
    21. Martin Adler & Stefanie Peer & Tanja Sinozic, 2019. "Autonomous, Connected, Electric Shared vehicles (ACES) and public finance: an explorative analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-005/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax receipts; forecasts; budget;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.