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Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," Working Papers 98-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Eichengreen, Barry, 2000. "Taming Capital Flows," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1105-1116, June.
  3. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 2000. "Measuring real economic effects of bailouts: historical perspectives on how countries in financial distress have fared with and without bailouts," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 81-167, December.
  4. Kumhof, Michael & Li, Shujing & Yan, Isabel, 2007. "Balance of payments crises under inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 242-264, May.
  5. Claude Bismut & Darine Ghanem, 2009. "This paper investigates empirically the reasons behind the popularity of fixed adjustable pegs in the Middle East North Africa region (MENA). We have used an ordered multinomial random effects probit ," Working Papers 09-10, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Sep 2009.
  6. Francisco Perez-Bermejo & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Reyes Maroto-Illera, 2007. "An eclectic approach to currency crises: drawing lessons from the EMS experience," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 503-519.
  7. Siebert, Jan & Yang, Guanzhong, 2021. "Coordination problems triggered by sunspots in the laboratory," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  8. Michael Kumhof, 2002. "A Critical View of Inflation Targeting: Crises, Limited Sustaintability, and Aggregate Shocks," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 8, pages 349-394, Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Hamidreza Tabarraei, 2014. "Euro-Crisis and Spillover Effects on the Emerging Economies," PSE Working Papers halshs-00952153, HAL.
  10. Tulus T.H. Tambunan, 2011. "Indonesia during two big economic crises 1997/98 and 2008/09: How was the impact and what was the main difference between the two crises?," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 045-058.
  11. Manmohan Agarwal & T. R. Vandana, 2022. "Exchange rate crises in Latin America, East Asia and Russia," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 42(2), pages 263-282.
  12. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Morris, Stephen, 2007. "Risk and wealth in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2205-2230, November.
  13. E. Grilli, 1999. "Some considerations on the reform of the international monetary and financial system," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(209), pages 195-237.
  14. Andrea Cipollini & Kostas Mouratidis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2008. "Evaluating currency crises: the case of the European monetary system," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 11-27, August.
  15. Celasun, Oya, 1998. "The 1994 currency crisis in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1913, The World Bank.
  16. Alexis Cruz-Rodríguez, 2014. "Is there a relationship between fiscal sustainability and currency crises? International evidence based on causality tests," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 69-87, April.
  17. Akçay, Cevdet & Zenginobuz, Unal, 2000. "Vulnerability to purely contagious balance of payment crises in emerging economies: An application to the cases of Russia, Turkey, and Brazil," MPRA Paper 195, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Manfred G?rtner & Bj?rn Griesbach, 2017. "Rating Agencies, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy and Multiple Equilibria? An Empirical Model of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis 2009-2011," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 199-226, June.
  19. Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Some Lessons from Postwar Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 2723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Karl Whelan, 2013. "Sovereign default and the euro," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 478-501, AUTUMN.
  21. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_010 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Mahmoud Haddad & Sam Hakim, 2008. "The Impact of War and Terrorism on Sovereign Risk in MENA Countries," Working Papers 394, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Jan 2008.
  23. Lili Zhu & Jiawen Yang, 2010. "Psychic Distance in the Eight-year Crisis: An Empirical Study," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  24. Manmohan Agarwal & Vandana T. R., 2021. "Exchange Rate Crises: Experiences of Latin America, East Asia and India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 10(2), pages 158-178, December.
  25. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
  26. Hamidreza Tabarraei, 2014. "Euro-Crisis and Spillover Effects on the Emerging Economies," Working Papers halshs-00952153, HAL.
  27. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1999. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 229-262.
  28. SOVIANI, Radu, 2014. "The Currency Crisis Trigger Of The Romanian Financial Crisis Of 2008," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 18(2), pages 8-17.
  29. Akyüz, Yılmaz., 2006. "From liberalization to investment and jobs : lost in translation," ILO Working Papers 993913203402676, International Labour Organization.
  30. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Pompeo Della Posta, 2002. "Modelli di crisi valutarie e misure di politica economica," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 55(219), pages 237-262.
  32. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Brahim, Mariem & Carlotti, Jean-Etienne & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mensi, Walid, 2024. "Extreme downside risk connectedness and portfolio hedging among the G10 currencies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
  33. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Jenny Corbett & Gregor Irwin & David Vines, 1999. "From Asian Miracle to Asian Crisis: Why Vulnerability, Why Collapse?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.),Capital Flows and the International Financial System, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  35. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2017. "The Credibility of a Soft Pegged Exchange Rate in Emerging Market Economies: Evidence from a Panel Data Study," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 18(1), pages 29-51, May.
  36. Buiter, Willem H., 2000. "Optimal currency areas: why does the exchange rate regime matter? (with an application to UK membership in EMU)," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20178, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  37. Barry Eichengreen & Olivier Jeanne, 2000. "Currency Crisis and Unemployment: Sterling in 1931," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 7-43, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kutan, Ali M., 2007. "IMF-related announcements and stock market returns: Evidence from financial and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-104, January.
  39. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
  40. E. Grilli, 1999. "Some considerations on the reform of the international monetary and financial system," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(209), pages 195-237.
  41. Rangvid, Jesper & Sorensen, Carsten, 2001. "Determinants of the implied shadow exchange rates from a target zone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1665-1696, October.
  42. Cartapanis A. & Herland M., 2001. "Systemic Risk and New International Financial Architecture: Reconciling KEYNES and Neo-Liberalism?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 5-26, January -.
  43. Dooley, Michael P., 1997. "Financial Liberalization and Policy Challenges," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6075, Inter-American Development Bank.
  44. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
  45. Tulus T.H. Tambunan, 2012. "Trade response to economic shocks in Indonesia," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 3(8), pages 283-300.
  46. Sbracia, Massimo & Zaghini, Andrea, 2001. "Expectations and information in second generation currency crises models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 203-222, April.
  47. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000. "Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April.
  48. Olivier Jeanne and Paul Masson., 1997. "Was the French Franc Crisis a Sunspot Equilibrium?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-095, University of California at Berkeley.
  49. Arias, Guillaume & Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia," Working Papers 2004:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  50. Schnatz, Bernd, 1998. "Macroeconomic determinants of currency turbulences in emerging markets," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1998,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  51. Cruz-Rodríguez Alexis, 2013. "The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 13(4), pages 176-194, December.
  52. Velasco, Andres, 1997. "When are fixed exchange rates really fixed?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 5-25, October.
  53. Jenny Corbett & David Vines, 1998. "The Asian Crisis: Competing Explanations," SCEPA working paper series. 1998-12, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
  54. Costa i Font, Joan & Pigem Vigo, Monica, 1999. "Financial Crises and Transmission Mechanisms," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa054, European Regional Science Association.
  55. Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris, 2003. "Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1433R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2004.
  56. Allen B. Frankel, 1998. "Issues in financial institution capital in emerging market economies," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Oct), pages 213-223.
  57. Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2008. "The Theoretical Link Between Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis Episodes," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1111, International Trade and Finance Association.
  58. José-María Da-Rocha & Eduardo-Luis Giménez & Francisco-Xavier Lores, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises with default and devaluation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 53(3), pages 499-535, August.
  59. Michael Chui, 2002. "Leading indicators of balance-of-payments crises: a partial review," Bank of England working papers 171, Bank of England.
  60. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.
  61. Jose Antonio R. Tan, 1998. "Contagion effects during the Asian financial crisis: stock price data," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  62. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Slacik, Tomas, 2009. "On the determinants of currency crises: The role of model uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 621-632, December.
  63. Kent Osband & Caroline Van Rijckeghem, 2000. "Safety from Currency Crashes," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-4.
  64. Rui Esteves, 2011. "The Political Economy of Global Financial Liberalisation in Historical Perspective," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _089, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  65. Michael Bordo & Anna Schwartz, 1996. "Why clashes between internal and external stability goals end in currency crises, 1797–1994," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 437-468, March.
  66. Vittorio Corbo & José Tessada, 2002. "Growth and Adjustment in Chile: A Look at the 1990s," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 14, pages 465-522, Central Bank of Chile.
  67. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126, Decembrie.
  68. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
  69. Patricia Alvarez‐Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2006. "The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov‐Switching Model Estimation," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(1), pages 79-91, March.
  70. M. Berlemann & K. Hristov & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2002. "Lending of last resort, moral hazard and twin crises. Lessons from the Bulgarian financial crises 1996/1997," Post-Print halshs-00260052, HAL.
  71. Miksjuk Alexei, 2009. "Studying the Relation between the Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate in Belarus under the Speculative Motives Assumption," EERC Working Paper Series 09/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  72. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2007:i:2:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  73. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Morris, Stephen, 2007. "Risk and wealth in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2205-2230, November.
  74. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets: Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  75. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  76. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
  77. André Cartapanis & Vincent Dropsy & Sophie Mametz, 2002. "The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 79-91, February.
  78. Jian Tong & Chenggang Xu, 2004. "Financial Sector Returns and Creditor Moral Hazard: Evidence from Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-687, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  79. Saziye Gazioglu, 2003. "Capital flows to an emerging financial market in Turkey," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 189-195, August.
  80. Goldfajn, Ilan & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 1998. "Are currency crises predictable?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 873-885, May.
  81. Kristina Kittelmann & Marcel Tirpak & Rainer Schweickert & Lúcio Vinhas De Souza, 2006. "From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 410-434, September.
  82. Komulainen, Tuomas, 1999. "Currency crisis theories: Some explanations for the Russian case," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/1999, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  83. Peter Kenen, 1996. "Analyzing and managing exchange-rate crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 469-492, March.
  84. Alexis Cruz Rodriguez, 2011. "Prediction of Currency Crises Using a Fiscal Sustainability Indicator," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 26(2), pages 39-60, December.
  85. repec:ilo:ilowps:391320 is not listed on IDEAS
  86. Cavallari, Lilia & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2000. "Shadow rates and multiple equilibria in the theory of currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 275-286, August.
  87. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
  88. Moser, Christoph, 2007. "The Impact of Political Risk on Sovereign Bond Spreads - Evidence from Latin America," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 24, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  89. repec:bla:jecsur:v:18:y:2004:i::p:321-350 is not listed on IDEAS
  90. Komulainen, Tuomas, 1999. "Currency crisis theories : Some explanations for the Russian case," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/1999, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  91. Olivier Jeanne, 1996. "Les modèles de crise de change : un essai de synthèse en relation avec la crise du franc de 1992-1993," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 147-162.
  92. Marcin Sasin, 2002. "Predicting Currency Crises, the Ultimate Significance of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Linear Specifications with Nonlinear Extensions," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0224, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  93. Georgios Magkonis & Karen Jackson, 2019. "Identifying Networks in Social Media: The case of #Grexit," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 319-330, March.
  94. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2018. "A model of currency crises with heterogeneous market beliefs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-195.
  95. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: Are They the Same in Different Exchange Rate Regimes?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 937-957, November.
  96. Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kim, Jong Sung, 2006. "Macroeconomic policies and participation in IMF programs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 264-281, October.
  97. Lorenzoni, Guido, 2014. "International Financial Crises," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 689-740, Elsevier.
  98. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
  99. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Apertura financiera y retos de políticas," Research Department Publications 4103, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  100. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico [Fiscal sustainability and currency crises: An empirical analysis]," MPRA Paper 67741, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  101. Drazen, Allan, 2000. "Interest-rate and borrowing defense against speculative attack," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 303-348, December.
  102. Rui P. Esteves, 2011. "The Political Economy of Global Financial Liberalisation in Historical Perspective," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _089, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  103. Chiara Mussida & Dario Sciulli, 2016. "The trend over time of labour market opportunities for young people in Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 33(2), pages 291-321, August.
  104. Mojmír Helísek, 2008. "Riziko měnové krize z hlediska účasti v kursovém mechanismu ERM II [The risk of currency crisis in the period of participating in exchange rate mechanism ERM II]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(3), pages 380-403.
  105. Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis, 2014. "¿Puede un índice de sostenibilidad fiscal predecir la ocurrencia de crisis cambiarias? Evidencias para algunos países seleccionados [Can a fiscal sustainability indicator predict the occurrence of ," MPRA Paper 54103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  106. Carroll Howard GRIFFIN, 2010. "The Role Of Latin American Banks In The Region’s Currency Crises," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 5, pages 55-71, June.
  107. Chauvet, Marcelle, 2001. "A Monthly Indicator of Brazilian GDP," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 21(1), May.
  108. repec:zbw:bofitp:1999_001 is not listed on IDEAS
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