IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/psl/moneta/200232.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelli di crisi valutarie e misure di politica economica

Author

Listed:
  • Pompeo Della Posta

    (Università degli Studi di Pisa, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Pisa)

Abstract

Some recent articles explain the Asian crisis almost exclusively in terms of "fundamentals". The role played by private sector's expectations, however, should also be considered. In my view, then, "escape clause" models exhibiting multiple equilibria within a grey area, especially when integrated with the possibility that expectations may change exogenously so as to modify the grey area itself, allow a better understanding of exchange rate crises. When considering the role played by expectations, the economic policy measures to be adopted in order to assure the stability of financial and currency markets differ from the remedies emerging when those aspects are ignored.

Suggested Citation

  • Pompeo Della Posta, 2002. "Modelli di crisi valutarie e misure di politica economica," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 55(219), pages 237-262.
  • Handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2002:32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rspi.uniroma1.it/index.php/monetaecredito/article/view/9791/9676
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-172, January.
    2. James Tobin, 1994. "Speculators' tax: International policy coorcdination and national monetary autonomy‐why both are needed and how a trasaction tax would help," New Economy, Institute for Public Policy Research, vol. 1(2), pages 104-109, June.
    3. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    5. Rudi Dornbusch, 2002. "A Primer on Emerging-Market Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 743-754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 4(3-4), pages 153-159, Jul/Oct.
    7. Irwin, Gregor & Vines, David, 1999. "A Krugman-Dooley-Sachs Third Generation Model of the Asian Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    9. Atkeson, Andrew & Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1996. "The balance of payments and borrowing constraints: An alternative view of the Mexican crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 331-349, November.
    10. G. C. Harcourt, 2001. "50 Years a Keynesian," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: 50 Years a Keynesian and Other Essays, chapter 1, pages 1-30, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
    12. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    13. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    14. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures and Systemic Implications, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa55, April.
    15. James Tobin, 1996. "A currency transactions tax, why and how," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 493-499, March.
    16. Jan A. Kregel, 1998. "East Asia Is Not Mexico: The Difference between Balance of Payments Crises and Debt Deflations," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_235, Levy Economics Institute.
    17. Chang, Ha-Joon & Palma, Gabriel & Whittaker, D Hugh, 1998. "The Asian Crisis: Introduction," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 22(6), pages 649-652, November.
    18. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    19. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Paul Krugman, 1996. "Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 345-407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Pompeo Della Posta & Bruno Cheli, 2001. "Attacchi speculativi autorealizzantesi con informazione incompleta: alcuni commenti," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 285-316.
    22. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
    23. Chang, Ha-Joon, 1998. "Korea: The misunderstood crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1555-1561, August.
    24. Chang, Ha-Joon, 2000. "The Hazard of Moral Hazard: Untangling the Asian Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 775-788, April.
    25. Tronzano , Marco, 2001. "Alternative Approaches to Evaluate Exchange Rate Credibility: A Selective Survey of the Literature and Some Policy Implications for the European Monetary," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 54(1), pages 57-88.
    26. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    27. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    28. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Gabriel Palma, 2001. "Three-and-a-half Cycles of ‘Mania, Panic, and [Asymmetric] Crash’: East Asia and Latin America Compared," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Ha-Joon Chang & Gabriel Palma & D. Hugh Whittaker (ed.), Financial Liberalization and the Asian Crisis, chapter 15, pages 254-286, Palgrave Macmillan.
    30. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    31. G. C. Harcourt, 2001. "50 Years a Keynesian and Other Essays," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-52331-9, March.
    32. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2018. "A model of currency crises with heterogeneous market beliefs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-195.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    3. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    4. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency crises in emerging markets : Capital flows and herding behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. Delphine Lahet, 2001. "L'occurrence d'une crise financière dans un modèle de troisième génération," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 16(2), pages 179-206.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    8. Pablo Bustelo & Clara Garcia & Iliana Olivie, 1999. "Global and Domestic Factors of Financial Crises in Emerging Economies: Lessons from the East Asian Episodes (1997-1999)," Working Papers 002, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June.
    10. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    11. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    12. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    13. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
    14. Plasmans, J.E.J., 2001. "Currency Crises and Economic Monetary Cooperation : An Application to South East Asia and Comparison with Mexico, Brazil and Europe," Other publications TiSEM d740e32a-4dff-44ad-ae39-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Komulainen, Tuomas, 1999. "Currency crisis theories : Some explanations for the Russian case," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/1999, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    16. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    17. repec:bla:jecsur:v:18:y:2004:i::p:321-350 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Lorenzoni, Guido, 2014. "International Financial Crises," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 689-740, Elsevier.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:1999_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    21. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2000. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 11-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Ahnert, Toni & Bertsch, Christoph, 2013. "A wake-up call: information contagion and strategic uncertainty," Working Paper Series 282, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2014.
    23. Bris, Arturo & Koskinen, Yrjo, 2002. "Corporate leverage and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 275-310, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crisis; Exchange Rates;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2002:32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carlo D'Ippoliti (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.economiacivile.it .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.