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Studying the Relation between the Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate in Belarus under the Speculative Motives Assumption

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  • Miksjuk Alexei

Abstract

Three alternative forms of relation between the interest rates and the exchange rate implied by the speculative behavior are tested. The uncovered interest parity, implying equal return of assets in home and foreign currency, is shown not to hold in Belarus. The uncovered interest parity with the risk premium, allowing for risk aversion of speculators, is provided with mixed evidence. The theory is conciliated with the data when the ‘peso problem’, i.e. very low probability of large-scale devaluation, is accounted for. The results are used to estimate the relation between the interest rate and the exchange rate under the speculative motives in Belarus and provide monetary policy recommendations and conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Miksjuk Alexei, 2009. "Studying the Relation between the Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate in Belarus under the Speculative Motives Assumption," EERC Working Paper Series 09/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:09/07e
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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