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An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
  2. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1970. "An Application of Econometric Models to International Marketing," MPRA Paper 81698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. John Lintner, 1972. "Finance and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 2, Finance and Capital Markets, pages 1-53, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter Norman, 2006. "The strategy of professional forecasting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 441-466, August.
  6. Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
  7. J. Scott Armstrong & Michael C. Grohman, 1972. "A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(2), pages 211-221, October.
  8. Karel Janda, 2019. "Earnings Stability and Peer Company Selection for Multiple Based Indirect Valuation," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 37-75, February.
  9. Tessier, Thomas H. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2015. "Decomposition of time-series by level and change," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1755-1758.
  10. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
  12. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kelley, Brian W., 2008. "El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-18, April.
  13. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Business Cycles Analysis and Expectational Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 1378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Merv Daub, 1971. "Preliminary Results from a Study to Estimate the Cost of Errors in a Firm's Aggregate Predictions," Working Paper 40, Economics Department, Queen's University.
  15. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
  16. John G. Cragg & Burton G. Malkiel, 1982. "References, Index," NBER Chapters, in: Expectations and the Structure of Share Prices, pages 167-176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. West, Carol Taylor, 2003. "Structural Regional Factors that Determine Absolute and Relative Accuracy of U.S. Regional Labor Market Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(Supplemen), pages 1-15.
  18. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2002. "Professional Advice: The Theory of Reputational Cheap Talk," Discussion Papers 02-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  19. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Victor Zarnowitz, 1999. "Has the Business Cycle Been Abolished?," NBER Working Papers 6367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Victor Zarnowitz, 1982. "The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys," NBER Working Papers 1053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Various, 1971. "Papers by Staff Members on Research Priorities," NBER Chapters, in: New Directions in Economic Research, pages 1-70, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Karine Bouthevillain, 1993. "La prévision macro-économique : précision relative et consensus," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 97-126.
  25. James A. Hanson, 1978. "The short-run relation between growth and inflation in Latin America: a quasi rational or consistent expectations approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 118, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Solomon Fabricant, 1972. "Recent Economic Changes and the Agenda of Business Cycle Research," NBER Chapters, in: Supplement to NBER Report Eight, pages 1-33, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Olkhov, Victor, 2024. "Lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on the accuracy of forecasts of macroeconomic variables," MPRA Paper 121628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. No, Sung Chul & Salassi, Michael E., 2006. "Dynamic Analysis and Forecasts of Rough Rice Price under Government Price Support Program: An Application of Bayesian VAR," 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida 35279, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  29. Solomon Fabricant, 1971. "Recent Economic Changes and the Agenda of Business-Cycle Research," NBER Chapters, in: Supplement to NBER Report Eight, pages 1-33, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Victor Zarnowitz, 1972. "Forecasting Economic Conditions: The Record and the Prospect," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research: Retrospect and Prospect, Volume 1, The Business Cycle Today, pages 183-239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Ewa Ratuszny, 2015. "Risk Modeling of Commodities using CAViaR Models, the Encompassing Method and the Combined Forecasts," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 15, pages 129-156.
  33. John Lintner, 1972. "Finance and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Research. Retrospect and Prospect: Finance and Capital Markets, Fiftieth Anniversary Colloquium II, pages 1-53, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Gács, János & Lackó, Mária, 1974. "A népgazdasági szintű tervezési magatartás vizsgálata: kísérlet néhány összefüggés elemzésére [Examination of national-level planning behaviour: An attempt at analysing some interrelations]," MPRA Paper 61834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Paulo Júlio & Pedro M. Esperança & João C. Fonseca, 2011. "Evaluating the forecast quality of GDP components," GEE Papers 0041 Classification-C52, , Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Oct 2011.
  36. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Didier Borowski & Carine Bouthevillain & Catherine Doz & Pierre Malgrange & Pierre Morin, 1991. "Vingt ans de prévisions macro-économiques : une évaluation sur données françaises," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 43-65.
  38. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1983. "Forecasting Short-Term Economic Change," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, 2nd edition, pages 401-432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "The 1990-91 recession in historical perspective," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
  40. Yasemin Ulu, 2015. "Rationality of inflation-output forecasts of MMS survey: international evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(12), pages 1187-1198, March.
  41. Victor Zarnowitz, 1986. "The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 2099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Victor Zarnowitz, 1979. "Information, Measurement, And Prediction In Economics," NBER Working Papers 0318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Rosanne Cole, 1969. "Data Errors and Forecasting Accuracy," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 47-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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