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Preliminary Results from a Study to Estimate the Cost of Errors in a Firm's Aggregate Predictions

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  • Merv Daub

    (Queen's University)

Abstract

Clearly there are many aggregate factors which affect all firms in the economy to some degree. Presumably there are others which differentially affect individual industries. Industry considerations aside, any particular firm would want to formulate 'own-firm' expectations incorporating aggregate expectations at least insofar as it felt aggregate events important. As regards the firm making the forecasts, the important standard of 'accuracy' might rather be economic consequences for its operations of these forecasts errors (which may or may not be adequately approximated by absolute error criteria).

Suggested Citation

  • Merv Daub, 1971. "Preliminary Results from a Study to Estimate the Cost of Errors in a Firm's Aggregate Predictions," Working Paper 40, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:40
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard R. Nelson, 1961. "Uncertainty, Prediction, and Competitive Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 75(1), pages 41-62.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1967. "An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn67-1.
    3. D. J. Smyth, 1966. "How Well do Australian Economists Forecast," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 42(1-4), pages 293-311, March.
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