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Do experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?
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- Chang, Chia-Lin & de Bruijn, Bert & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2013.
"Analyzing fixed-event forecast revisions,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 622-627.
- Philip Hans Franses & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Working Papers in Economics 11/25, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-14, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Apr 2013.
- Philip Hans Franses & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-24, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2013. "Analyzing Fixed-Event Forecast Revisions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-057/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-22, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Michael McAleer & Philip Hans Franses & Chia-Lin Chang, 2011. "Analyzing Fixed-event Forecast Revisions," KIER Working Papers 779, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Kranendonk, Henk C. & Lanser, Debby, 2011.
"One model and various experts: Evaluating Dutch macroeconomic forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 482-495, April.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Kranendonk, Henk C. & Lanser, Debby, 2011. "One model and various experts: Evaluating Dutch macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 482-495.
- Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2017. "Integrating judgment in statistical demand forecasting: An approach to confront uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-20, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
- Goodwin, Paul & Sinan Gönül, M. & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 354-366.
- Philip Hans Franses & Rianne Legerstee & Richard Paap, 2017.
"Estimating loss functions of experts,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 386-396, January.
- Philip Hans Franses & Rianne Legerstee & Richard Paap, 2011. "Estimating Loss Functions of Experts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-177/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Legerstee, R. & Paap, R., 2011. "Estimating Loss Functions of Experts," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2011-42, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015.
"Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative,"
Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2014. "Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative," MPRA Paper 53579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Katsagounos, Ilias & Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Litsiou, Konstantia & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Superforecasting reality check: Evidence from a small pool of experts and expedited identification," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 107-117.
- Babai, Zied & Boylan, John E. & Kolassa, Stephan & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2016. "Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the futureAuthor-Name: Syntetos, Aris A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 1-26.
- Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Onkal, Dilek, 2015. "Information use in supply chain forecasting," MPRA Paper 66034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Chang, Chia Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & Mcaleer, Michael, 2012.
"Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts,"
Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 22-43, September.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2011-15, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts," KIER Working Papers 773, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts," Working Papers in Economics 11/16, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Boutselis, Petros & McNaught, Ken, 2019. "Using Bayesian Networks to forecast spares demand from equipment failures in a changing service logistics context," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 325-333.
- Legerstee, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 2011.
"Do experts incorporate statistical model forecasts and should they?,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI2011-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses & Richard Paap, 2011. "Do Experts incorporate Statistical Model Forecasts and should they?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-141/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Aysun Kapucugil Ikiz & Gizem Halil Utma, 2023. "Combined Forecasts of Intermittent Demand for Stock-keeping Units (SKUs)," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, June.
- Nibbering, Didier & Paap, Richard & van der Wel, Michel, 2018.
"What do professional forecasters actually predict?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 288-311.
- Didier Nibbering & Richard Paap & Michel van der Wel, 2015. "What Do Professional Forecasters Actually Predict?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-095/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Oct 2017.
- Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
- Fildes, Robert, 2015. "Forecasters and rationality—A comment on Fritsche et al., Forecasting the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso: Asymmetric loss, forecast rationality and forecaster herding," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 140-143.
- Boone, Tonya & Ganeshan, Ram & Jain, Aditya & Sanders, Nada R., 2019. "Forecasting sales in the supply chain: Consumer analytics in the big data era," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 170-180.
- Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2014.
"Do Experts’ SKU Forecasts Improve after Feedback?,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 69-79, January.
- Legerstee, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2011. "Do experts' SKU forecasts improve after feedback?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2011-31, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2011. "Do Experts' SKU Forecasts improve after Feedback?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-135/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Philip Hans Franses, 2021. "Modeling Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 401-417, December.
- Makridakis, Spyros & Hyndman, Rob J. & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2020. "Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 15-28.
- Davydenko, Andrey & Fildes, Robert, 2013. "Measuring forecasting accuracy: The case of judgmental adjustments to SKU-level demand forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 510-522.
- Khosrowabadi, Naghmeh & Hoberg, Kai & Imdahl, Christina, 2022. "Evaluating human behaviour in response to AI recommendations for judgemental forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1151-1167.
- Trapero, Juan R. & Kourentzes, N. & Fildes, R., 2012. "Impact of information exchange on supplier forecasting performance," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 738-747.
- Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Önkal, Dilek, 2019. "Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 144-156.
- Huang, Tao & Fildes, Robert & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "The value of competitive information in forecasting FMCG retail product sales and the variable selection problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 738-748.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Legerstee, Rianne, 2013. "Do statistical forecasting models for SKU-level data benefit from including past expert knowledge?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-87.
- Chang, Chia-Lin & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2011.
"How accurate are government forecasts of economic fundamentals? The case of Taiwan,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1066-1075, October.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2009. "How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-637, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010. "How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan," KIER Working Papers 720, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Philip Hans Franses & Michael McAleer, 2010. "How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan," Working Papers in Economics 10/16, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Franses, Philip Hans, 2013. "Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-8.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul, 2016. "Do ‘big losses’ in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts’ behaviour?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 842-852.
- Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2012. "Managing Sales Forecasters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-131/III, Tinbergen Institute.