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Using Bayesian Networks to forecast spares demand from equipment failures in a changing service logistics context

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  • Boutselis, Petros
  • McNaught, Ken

Abstract

A problem faced by some Logistic Support Organisations (LSOs) is that of forecasting the demand for spare parts, corresponding to equipment failures within the system. Here we are particularly concerned with a final phase of operations and the opportunity to place only a single order to cover demand during this phase. The problem is further complicated when the service logistics context can change during this final phase, e.g. as the number of systems supported or the LSO's resources change. Such a problem is typical of the final phase of many military operations.

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  • Boutselis, Petros & McNaught, Ken, 2019. "Using Bayesian Networks to forecast spares demand from equipment failures in a changing service logistics context," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 325-333.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:209:y:2019:i:c:p:325-333
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2018.06.017
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    Cited by:

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    2. Evangelos Spiliotis & Spyros Makridakis & Artemios-Anargyros Semenoglou & Vassilios Assimakopoulos, 2022. "Comparison of statistical and machine learning methods for daily SKU demand forecasting," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 3037-3061, July.
    3. Boram Choi & Jong Hwan Suh, 2020. "Forecasting Spare Parts Demand of Military Aircraft: Comparisons of Data Mining Techniques and Managerial Features from the Case of South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-20, July.
    4. Babai, M.Z. & Chen, H. & Syntetos, A.A. & Lengu, D., 2021. "A compound-Poisson Bayesian approach for spare parts inventory forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    5. Pinçe, Çerağ & Turrini, Laura & Meissner, Joern, 2021. "Intermittent demand forecasting for spare parts: A Critical review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    6. Qilei Wang, 2024. "Research on construction and task planning of police equipment support system based on background of anti-terrorism operation," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 15(6), pages 2730-2742, June.
    7. Abroon Qazi & Mecit Can Emre Simsekler & Steven Formaneck, 2023. "Supply chain risk network value at risk assessment using Bayesian belief networks and Monte Carlo simulation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(1), pages 241-272, March.
    8. Lin, Edward M.H. & Sun, Edward W. & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Behavioral data-driven analysis with Bayesian method for risk management of financial services," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

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