IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v35y2019i1p170-180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting sales in the supply chain: Consumer analytics in the big data era

Author

Listed:
  • Boone, Tonya
  • Ganeshan, Ram
  • Jain, Aditya
  • Sanders, Nada R.

Abstract

Forecasts have traditionally served as the basis for planning and executing supply chain activities. Forecasts drive supply chain decisions, and they have become critically important due to increasing customer expectations, shortening lead times, and the need to manage scarce resources. Over the last ten years, advances in technology and data collection systems have resulted in the generation of huge volumes of data on a wide variety of topics and at great speed. This paper reviews the impact that this explosion of data is having on product forecasting and how it is improving it. While much of this review will focus on time series data, we will also explore how such data can be used to obtain insights into consumer behavior, and the impact of such data on organizational forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Boone, Tonya & Ganeshan, Ram & Jain, Aditya & Sanders, Nada R., 2019. "Forecasting sales in the supply chain: Consumer analytics in the big data era," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 170-180.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:1:p:170-180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207018301523
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gérard P. Cachon & Kaitlin M. Daniels & Ruben Lobel, 2017. "The Role of Surge Pricing on a Service Platform with Self-Scheduling Capacity," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 368-384, July.
    2. Harald Hruschka, 2017. "Multicategory Purchase Incidence Models for Partitions of Product Categories," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 230-240, April.
    3. Maxime C. Cohen, 2018. "Big Data and Service Operations," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 27(9), pages 1709-1723, September.
    4. William E. Wecker, 1978. "Predicting Demand from Sales Data in the Presence of Stockouts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(10), pages 1043-1054, June.
    5. Olga Perdikaki & Saravanan Kesavan & Jayashankar M. Swaminathan, 2012. "Effect of Traffic on Sales and Conversion Rates of Retail Stores," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 145-162, January.
    6. V. Kumar & Vikram Bhaskaran & Rohan Mirchandani & Milap Shah, 2013. "Practice Prize Winner ---Creating a Measurable Social Media Marketing Strategy: Increasing the Value and ROI of Intangibles and Tangibles for Hokey Pokey," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(2), pages 194-212, March.
    7. Philip Hans Franses & Rianne Legerstee, 2010. "Do experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 331-340.
    8. Hernán A. Bruno & Naufel J. Vilcassim, 2008. "—Structural Demand Estimation with Varying Product Availability," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(6), pages 1126-1131, 11-12.
    9. Fantazzini, Dean & Toktamysova, Zhamal, 2015. "Forecasting German car sales using Google data and multivariate models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PA), pages 97-135.
    10. Castle, Jennifer L. & Fawcett, Nicholas W.P. & Hendry, David F., 2009. "Nowcasting is not Just Contemporaneous Forecasting," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210, pages 71-89, October.
    11. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    12. Lynn Wu & Erik Brynjolfsson, 2015. "The Future of Prediction: How Google Searches Foreshadow Housing Prices and Sales," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy, pages 89-118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Hyunyoung Choi & Hal Varian, 2012. "Predicting the Present with Google Trends," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(s1), pages 2-9, June.
    14. Tonya Boone & Ram Ganeshan, 2008. "The Value of Information Sharing in the Retail Supply Chain: Two Case Studies," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 9, pages 12-17, Spring.
    15. Vidya Mani & Saravanan Kesavan & Jayashankar M. Swaminathan, 2015. "Estimating the Impact of Understaffing on Sales and Profitability in Retail Stores," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 24(2), pages 201-218, February.
    16. Michael S. Drake & Darren T. Roulstone & Jacob R. Thornock, 2012. "Investor Information Demand: Evidence from Google Searches Around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 1001-1040, September.
    17. Khim-Yong Goh & Cheng-Suang Heng & Zhijie Lin, 2013. "Social Media Brand Community and Consumer Behavior: Quantifying the Relative Impact of User- and Marketer-Generated Content," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 88-107, March.
    18. Ram Ganeshan, 2014. "Clickstream Analysis for Forecasting Online Behavior," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 33, pages 15-19, Spring.
    19. Sam K. Hui & Peter S. Fader & Eric T. Bradlow, 2009. "—The Traveling Salesman Goes Shopping: The Systematic Deviations of Grocery Paths from TSP Optimality," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 566-572, 05-06.
    20. Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Lawrence, Michael & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2009. "Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23.
    21. Robert Fildes & Paul Goodwin, 2007. "Against Your Better Judgment? How Organizations Can Improve Their Use of Management Judgment in Forecasting," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(6), pages 570-576, December.
    22. Andrés Musalem & Marcelo Olivares & Eric T. Bradlow & Christian Terwiesch & Daniel Corsten, 2010. "Structural Estimation of the Effect of Out-of-Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1180-1197, July.
    23. Aditya Jain & Nils Rudi & Tong Wang, 2015. "Demand Estimation and Ordering Under Censoring: Stock-Out Timing Is (Almost) All You Need," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 134-150, February.
    24. Paul Smith, 2016. "Google's MIDAS Touch: Predicting UK Unemployment with Internet Search Data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(3), pages 263-284, April.
    25. Thomas Dimpfl & Stephan Jank, 2016. "Can Internet Search Queries Help to Predict Stock Market Volatility?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(2), pages 171-192, March.
    26. Selçuk Karabati & Bariş Tan & Ömer Öztürk, 2009. "A method for estimating stock-out-based substitution rates by using point-of-sale data," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(5), pages 408-420.
    27. Tonya Boone & Ram Ganeshan & Robert L. Hicks, 2015. "Incorporating Google Trends Data Into Sales Forecasting," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 38, pages 9-14, Summer.
    28. Matthias Bank & Martin Larch & Georg Peter, 2011. "Google search volume and its influence on liquidity and returns of German stocks," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(3), pages 239-264, September.
    29. Schaer, Oliver & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Fildes, Robert, 2019. "Demand forecasting with user-generated online information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 197-212.
    30. Bangwayo-Skeete, Prosper F. & Skeete, Ryan W., 2015. "Can Google data improve the forecasting performance of tourist arrivals? Mixed-data sampling approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 454-464.
    31. Yina Lu & Andrés Musalem & Marcelo Olivares & Ariel Schilkrut, 2013. "Measuring the Effect of Queues on Customer Purchases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(8), pages 1743-1763, August.
    32. Castle, Jennifer L. & Fawcett, Nicholas W.P. & Hendry, David F., 2009. "Nowcasting is not Just Contemporaneous Forecasting," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210, pages 71-89, October.
    33. Chris Hand & Guy Judge, 2012. "Searching for the picture: forecasting UK cinema admissions using Google Trends data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1051-1055, July.
    34. Harald J. Heerde & Scott A. Neslin, 2017. "Sales Promotion Models," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Berend Wierenga & Ralf van der Lans (ed.), Handbook of Marketing Decision Models, edition 2, chapter 0, pages 13-77, Springer.
    35. Qi Feng & J. George Shanthikumar, 2018. "How Research in Production and Operations Management May Evolve in the Era of Big Data," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 27(9), pages 1670-1684, September.
    36. Sam K. Hui & Eric T. Bradlow & Peter S. Fader, 2009. "Testing Behavioral Hypotheses Using an Integrated Model of Grocery Store Shopping Path and Purchase Behavior," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 478-493.
    37. Rivera, Roberto, 2016. "A dynamic linear model to forecast hotel registrations in Puerto Rico using Google Trends data," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 12-20.
    38. Shun Yin Lam & Mark Vandenbosch & John Hulland & Michael Pearce, 2001. "Evaluating Promotions in Shopping Environments: Decomposing Sales Response into Attraction, Conversion, and Spending Effects," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 194-215, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schaer, Oliver & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Fildes, Robert, 2019. "Demand forecasting with user-generated online information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 197-212.
    2. Mou, Shandong & Robb, David J. & DeHoratius, Nicole, 2018. "Retail store operations: Literature review and research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(2), pages 399-422.
    3. Abay,Kibrom A. & Hirfrfot,Kibrom Tafere & Woldemichael,Andinet, 2020. "Winners and Losers from COVID-19 : Global Evidence from Google Search," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9268, The World Bank.
    4. Bai, Lijuan & Yan, Xiangbin & Yu, Guang, 2019. "Impact of CEO media appearance on corporate performance in social media," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Ulrich Gunter & Irem Önder & Stefan Gindl, 2019. "Exploring the predictive ability of LIKES of posts on the Facebook pages of four major city DMOs in Austria," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 375-401, May.
    6. Meshcheryakov, Artem & Winters, Drew B., 2022. "Retail investor attention and the limit order book: Intraday analysis of attention-based trading," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Coble, David & Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "Nowcasting Building Permits with Google Trends," MPRA Paper 76514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    9. Tomas Havranek & Ayaz Zeynalov, 2021. "Forecasting tourist arrivals: Google Trends meets mixed-frequency data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(1), pages 129-148, February.
    10. Yuqian Zhang, 2023. "Using Google Trends to track the global interest in International Financial Reporting Standards: Evidence from big data," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 87-100, April.
    11. Livio Fenga, 2020. "Filtering and prediction of noisy and unstable signals: The case of Google Trends data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 281-295, March.
    12. Ahmed Shoukry Rashad, 2022. "The Power of Travel Search Data in Forecasting the Tourism Demand in Dubai," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-11, July.
    13. Havranek, Tomas & Zeynalov, Ayaz, 2018. "Forecasting Tourist Arrivals with Google Trends and Mixed Frequency Data," EconStor Preprints 187420, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas, 2016. "Googling gold and mining bad news," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 306-311.
    15. Cebrián, Eduardo & Domenech, Josep, 2024. "Addressing Google Trends inconsistencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    16. Perroni, Carlo & Scharf, Kimberley & Talavera, Oleksandr & Vi, Linh, 2022. "Does online salience predict charitable giving? Evidence from SMS text donations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 134-149.
    17. Qian Chen & Xiang Gao & Jianming Mo & Zhouling Xu, 2022. "Market Reaction to Local Attention around Earnings Announcements in China: Evidence from Internet Search Activity," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-26, October.
    18. Chang, Young Bong & Kwon, YoungOk, 2018. "Ambiguities in valuing information technology firms: Do internet searches help?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 260-269.
    19. Gang Xie & Xin Li & Yatong Qian & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism demand with KPCA-based web search indexes," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 721-743, June.
    20. Fildes, Robert & Ma, Shaohui & Kolassa, Stephan, 2022. "Retail forecasting: Research and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1283-1318.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:1:p:170-180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.