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Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

Author

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  • Goodwin, Paul
  • Sinan Gönül, M.
  • Önkal, Dilek

Abstract

Forecasting support systems (FSSs) have little value if users distrust the information and advice that they offer. Two experiments were used to investigate: (i) factors that influence the levels of users’ stated trust in advice provided by an FSS, when this advice is provided in the form of interval forecasts, (ii) the extent to which stated trust is associated with users’ modifications of the provided forecasts, and (iii) the consequences of these modifications for the calibration of the interval forecasts. Stated trust was influenced by the levels of noise in time series and whether a trend was present but was unaffected by the presence or absence of point forecasts. It was also higher when the intervals were framed as ‘best-case/worst-case’ forecasts and when the FSS provided explanations. Absence of trust was associated with a tendency to narrow the provided prediction intervals, which reduced their calibration.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodwin, Paul & Sinan Gönül, M. & Önkal, Dilek, 2013. "Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 354-366.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:29:y:2013:i:2:p:354-366
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.08.001
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    3. Mahmud, Hasan & Islam, A.K.M. Najmul & Ahmed, Syed Ishtiaque & Smolander, Kari, 2022. "What influences algorithmic decision-making? A systematic literature review on algorithm aversion," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    4. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    5. Ian Durbach & Gilberto Montibeller, 2018. "Predicting in shock: on the impact of negative, extreme, rare, and short lived events on judgmental forecasts," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 213-233, June.
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