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The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters

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Cited by:

  1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
  2. Ahrens, Steffen & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril & Roulund, Rasmus, 2019. "Price Dynamics and Trader Overconfidence," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 161, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  3. Li, ZhouPing & Ge, RuYi & Guo, XiaoShuang & Cai, Lingfei, 2021. "Can individual investors learn from experience in online P2P lending? Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  4. Marina Nikiforow, 2010. "Does training on behavioural finance influence fund managers' perception and behaviour?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(7), pages 515-528.
  5. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham, 2013. "Managerial Miscalibration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1547-1584.
  6. Tsung-ming Yeh & Yue Ling, 2022. "Confidence in Financial Literacy, Stock Market Participation, and Retirement Planning," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 169-186, March.
  7. Mei-Chen Lin & J. Jimmy Yang, 2023. "Do lottery characteristics matter for analysts’ forecast behavior?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1057-1091, October.
  8. Leppin, Julian Sebastian, 2014. "The relation between overreaction in forecasts and uncertainty: A nonlinear approachvon," HWWI Research Papers 158, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  9. Nawrocki, Tomasz Leszek & Jonek-Kowalska, Izabela, 2016. "Assessing operational risk in coal mining enterprises – Internal, industrial and international perspectives," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 50-67.
  10. Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "Correlation Neglect and Overconfidence. An Experimental Study," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 1-5.
  11. Huisman, Ronald & Van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Volatility expectations and disagreement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 379-393.
  12. Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Time-varying impact of monetary policy shocks on US stock returns: The role of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  13. Te Bao & Brice Corgnet & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Katsuhiko Okada & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Jiahua Zhu, 2022. "Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students," ISER Discussion Paper 1156r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2024.
  14. Mokinski, Frieder, 2016. "Using time-stamped survey responses to measure expectations at a daily frequency," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 271-282.
  15. Huber, Christoph & Huber, Jürgen & Hueber, Laura, 2019. "The effect of experts’ and laypeople’s forecasts on others’ stock market forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  16. Beshears, John & Milkman, Katherine L., 2011. "Do sell-side stock analysts exhibit escalation of commitment?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 304-317, March.
  17. Claus, Edda & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2023. "Biased expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  18. Hwang, Soosung & Cho, Youngha & Noh, Sanha, 2022. "The cost of overconfidence in public information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  19. Kenneth Yung & Yen-Chih Liu, 2009. "Implications of futures trading volume: Hedgers versus speculators," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(5), pages 318-337, December.
  20. Louis Lévy-Garboua & Muniza Askari & Marco Gazel, 2018. "Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 453-482, May.
  21. Richard Deaves & Jin Lei & Michael Schröder, 2019. "Forecaster Overconfidence and Market Survey Performance," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 173-194, April.
  22. Brückbauer, Frank & Schröder, Michael, 2021. "Data resource profile: The ZEW FMS dataset," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-100, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  23. Schwaiger, Rene & Kirchler, Michael & Lindner, Florian & Weitzel, Utz, 2020. "Determinants of investor expectations and satisfaction. A study with financial professionals," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  24. Kriti Jain & Kanchan Mukherjee & J. Neil Bearden & Anil Gaba, 2013. "Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence Intervals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(9), pages 1970-1987, September.
  25. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2007. "Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies," NBER Working Papers 13711, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Frank Caliendo & Kevin X. D. Huang, 2007. "Overconfidence in financial markets and consumption over the life cycle," Working Papers 07-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  27. Steffen Keck & Wenjie Tang, 2018. "Gender Composition and Group Confidence Judgment: The Perils of All-Male Groups," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(12), pages 5877-5898, December.
  28. Jaya M. Prosad & Sujata Kapoor & Jhumur Sengupta & Saurav Roychoudhary, 2017. "Overconfidence and Disposition Effect in Indian Equity Market: An Empirical Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1303-1321, October.
  29. Elina Pradkhan, 2016. "Information Content of Trading Activity in Precious Metals Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 421-456, May.
  30. Hueber, Laura & Schwaiger, Rene, 2022. "Debiasing through experience sampling: The case of myopic loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 87-138.
  31. Zhixin Xie & Lionel Page & Ben Hardy, 2016. "Investigating gender differences under time pressure in financial risk taking," QuBE Working Papers 045, QUT Business School.
  32. Ramzi Boussaidi, 2022. "Implications of the overconfidence bias in presence of private information: Evidence from MENA stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3660-3678, July.
  33. Oliver Gloede & Lukas Menkhoff, 2014. "Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 236-269, March.
  34. Hind Lebdaoui & Youssef Chetioui & Elias Guechi, 2021. "The Impact of Behavioral Biases on Investment Performance: Does Financial Literacy Matter?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 13-21.
  35. Martin Holmén & Felix Holzmeister & Michael Kirchler & Matthias Stefan & Erik Wengström, 2023. "Economic Preferences and Personality Traits Among Finance Professionals and the General Population," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(656), pages 2949-2977.
  36. Menkhoff, Lukas & Nikiforow, Marina, 2009. "Professionals' endorsement of behavioral finance: Does it impact their perception of markets and themselves?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 318-329, August.
  37. Caliendo, Frank & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2008. "Overconfidence and consumption over the life cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1347-1369, December.
  38. Hannu Schadewitz & Jonas Spohr, 2022. "Gender diverse boards and goodwill changes: association between accounting conservatism, gender and governance," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 26(3), pages 757-779, September.
  39. Riefler, Raul & Tosun, Onur Kemal & Baeckström, Ylva, 2023. "The role of gender in sales behaviour: Evidence from institutional financial brokerage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
  40. Bouteska, Ahmed & Harasheh, Murad & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "Revisiting overconfidence in investment decision-making: Further evidence from the U.S. market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  41. Su, Xuan-Qi & Lin, Yung-Chieh & Chen, Chin-Ming & Lowe, Alpha, 2019. "Are educational managers credible or overconfident? Evidence from share repurchases in Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 93-112.
  42. Fang, Yiwei & Hasan, Iftekhar & Lin, Chih-Yung & Sun, Jiong, 2022. "The impact of overconfident customers on supplier firm risks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 115-133.
  43. Bhagwat, Vineet & Shirley, Sara E. & Stark, Jeffrey R., 2023. "Gender, learning, and earnings estimate accuracy," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  44. Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "On the Measurement of Overconfidence: An Experimental Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(1), pages 30-37, 01-2018.
  45. Brückbauer Frank & Schröder Michael, 2023. "The ZEW Financial Market Survey Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 243(3-4), pages 451-469, June.
  46. Christoph Gort & Mei Wang, 2010. "Overconfidence and Active Management," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  47. Mei‐Chen Lin, 2018. "The effect of 52 week highs and lows on analyst stock recommendations," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 375-422, November.
  48. Brückbauer, Frank, 2022. "Do financial market experts know their theory? New evidence from survey data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-092, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2022.
  49. Trejos, Cristian & van Deemen, Adrian & Rodríguez, Yeny E. & Gómez, Juan M., 2019. "Overconfidence and disposition effect in the stock market: A micro world based setting," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 61-69.
  50. Cai, Wenwu & Lu, Jing, 2019. "Investors’ financial attention frequency and trading activity," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  51. Johansson Stenman, Olof & Nordblom, Katarina, 2010. "Are Men Really More Overconfident than Women? - A Natural Field Experiment on Exam Behavior," Working Papers in Economics 461, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  52. Lunn, Pete, 2011. "The Role of Decision-Making Biases in Ireland's Banking Crisis," Papers WP389, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  53. Laura Hueber & Rene Schwaiger, 2021. "Debiasing Through Experience Sampling: The Case of Myopic Loss Aversion," Working Papers 2021-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
  54. Shantanu Bagchi, 2011. "Can overconfidence explain the consumption hump?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(1), pages 41-70, January.
  55. Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2023. "Sentiment Regimes and Reaction of Stock Markets to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 365-381, July.
  56. Michael Razen & Michael Kirchler & Utz Weitzel, 2019. "Determinants Of Prepaid Systems Of Healthcare Financing - A Worldwide Country-Level Perspective," Working Papers 2019-12, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
  57. Vetter, J. & Benlian, Alexander & Hess, T., 2011. "Overconfidence in IT Investment Decisions: Why Knowledge can be Boon and Bane at the same Time," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 58030, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
  58. Sonsino, Doron & Regev, Eran, 2013. "Informational overconfidence in return prediction – More properties," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-84.
  59. Esra Alp Coşkun & Hakan Kahyaoglu & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2023. "Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior? Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.
  60. Leppin, Julian Sebstian, 2014. "The Relation Between Overreaction in Forecasts and Uncertainty: A Nonlinear Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100284, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  61. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
  62. Razen, Michael & Kirchler, Michael & Weitzel, Utz, 2020. "Domain-specific risk-taking among finance professionals," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
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