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Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Jagjit S. Chadha & Issam Samiri, 2022. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Productivity," Working Papers 030, The Productivity Institute.
  2. Lars Svensson & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 11733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
  4. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2023. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Working Paper Series 2023-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 207-298.
  6. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2017. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, And Financial Crises: Evidence From The American Record," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 527-541, January.
  7. John G. Fernald, 2005. "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and the contractionary effects of technology improvements," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Ayres, João & Navarro, Gaston & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Teles, Pedro, 2018. "Sovereign default: The role of expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 803-812.
  9. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Measures of per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1071-1097, September.
  10. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2022. "The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2022-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Andrea Caggese & Ander Pérez-Orive, 2017. "Capital Misallocation and Secular Stagnation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-009, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Current trends in the analysis of Canadian productivity growth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 5-25, January.
  13. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2012. "Trend growth expectations and U.S. house prices before and after the crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 394-409.
  14. Chetan Dave & Scott J. Dressler & Samreen Malik, 2022. "A Cautionary Tale of Fat Tails," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 53, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
  15. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
  16. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
  17. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
  18. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2018. "Testing the Number of Regimes in Markov Regime Switching Models," Papers 1801.06862, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
  19. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2009. "Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  20. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2003. "Lessons from the US growth resurgence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 453-470, July.
  21. James B. Bullard, 2018. "R-star wars: the phantom menace," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 60-65, April.
  22. Glocker, Christian & Wegmueller, Philipp, 2018. "International evidence of time-variation in trend labor productivity growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 115-119.
  23. Ellen McGrattan & Edward Prescott, 2006. "Why Did U.S. Market Hours Boom in the 1990s?," NBER Working Papers 12046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
  25. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2010. "Unmeasured Investment and the Puzzling US Boom in the 1990s," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 88-123, October.
  26. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2011. "Long-run growth expectations and "global imbalances"," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  27. Gabriel Rodriguez-Rondon & Jean-Marie Dufour, 2024. "MSTest: An R-Package for Testing Markov Switching Models," Papers 2411.08188, arXiv.org.
  28. Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2007. "Getting Income Shares Right: A Panel Data Investigation for OECD Countries," Working Papers 0701, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  29. Edge, Rochelle M. & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2007. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2421-2438, November.
  30. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  31. Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2010. "Using a DSGE model to look at the recent boom-bust cycle in the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 397, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  32. Luigi Bocola & Nils M. Gornemann, 2013. "Risk, economic growth and the value of U.S. corporations," Working Papers 13-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  33. Joao Ayres & Gaston Navarro & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations," Working Papers 757, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  34. Shaw, Charles, 2018. "Regime-Switching And Levy Jump Dynamics In Option-Adjusted Spreads," MPRA Paper 94154, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 May 2019.
  35. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
  36. Peter Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2008. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 473-492, July.
  37. John Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2022. "The UK Productivity Puzzle in an International Comparative Perspective," Working Papers 020, The Productivity Institute.
  38. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2021. "The Impact of COVID on Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2021-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  39. Janice C. dup Eberly & John dup Fernald, 2022. "Jackson Hole 2022 - Reassessing Economic Constraints: Potential Output (The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output)," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
  40. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
  41. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2009. "Getting Income Shares Right," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 23(3), pages 254-266, August.
  42. Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Simon van Norden, 2010. "Lessons from the latest data on U.S. productivity," Working Papers 11-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  43. Rochelle Edge & Thomas Laubach, 2004. "Learning and Shifts in Long-Run Growth," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 123, Society for Computational Economics.
  44. Cantore, C. & Ferroni, F. & León-Ledesma, M A., 2011. "Interpreting the Hours-Technology time-varying relationship," Working papers 351, Banque de France.
  45. Rachael McCririck & Daniel Rees, 2016. "The Slowdown in US Productivity Growth: Breaks and Beliefs," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  46. Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  47. Barraez, Daniel & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2009. "A Markov-Switching Model of Inflation: Looking at the future during uncertain times," MPRA Paper 106550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  48. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  49. Paul Welfens, 2010. "Transatlantic banking crisis: analysis, rating, policy issues," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 3-48, May.
  50. Arabinda Basistha, 2009. "Hours per capita and productivity: evidence from correlated unobserved components models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 187-206.
  51. Peter N. Ireland, 2013. "Stochastic Growth In The United States And Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, February.
  52. Cogley, Timothy, 2005. "How fast can the new economy grow? A Bayesian analysis of the evolution of trend growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 179-207, June.
  53. Mathias Hoffmann & Michael U Krause & Thomas Laubach, 2019. "The Expectations-driven US Current Account," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 897-924.
  54. Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
  55. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2016. "Why are initial estimates of productivity growth so unreliable?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 200-213.
  56. Caggese, Andrea & Pérez-Orive, Ander, 2022. "How stimulative are low real interest rates for intangible capital?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  57. Deniz Nebioğlu, 2022. "Great Recession and news shocks: evidence based on an estimated DSGE model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1649-1685, April.
  58. Jyoti Rahman & David Stephan & Gene Tunny, 2009. "Estimating trends in Australia's productivity," Treasury Working Papers 2009-01, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Feb 2009.
  59. Mark W. French, 2005. "A nonlinear look at trend MFP growth and the business cycle: result from a hybrid Kalman/Markov switching model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  60. James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  61. Biolsi, Christopher, 2021. "Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  62. Juan F. Jimeno & Esther Moral & Lorena Saiz, 2006. "Structural breaks in labor productivity growth: the United States vs. the European Union," Working Papers 0625, Banco de España.
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