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Dating Business Cycle Turning Points

In: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola, 2008. "Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland," Working Papers 2008-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Evangelia Papapetrou, 2013. "Oil prices and economic activity in Greece," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 385-397, November.
  3. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
  4. Alexandre Bonnet R. Costa & Pedro Cavalcanti G. Ferreira & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Osmani Teixeira C. Guillén & João Victor Issler & Artur Brasil Fialho Rodrigues, 2023. "Predicting Recessions in (almost) Real Time in a Big-data Setting," Working Papers Series 587, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  5. Camacho, Maximo, 2011. "Markov-switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real US GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 161-164, August.
  6. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2011. "How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(1), pages 6-23, March.
  7. Alexander Kurov, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187, November.
  8. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Employment And The Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 16-42, October.
  9. Buss, Ginters, 2010. "A note on GDP now-/forecasting with dynamic versus static factor models along a business cycle," MPRA Paper 22147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2020/01, OECD Publishing.
  11. Munechika Katayama, 2013. "Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 977-1016, September.
  12. Arabinda Basistha, "undated". "Estimates of Quarterly and Monthly Episodes of Global Recessions: Evidence from Markov-switching Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 24-07, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
  13. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Staff Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada.
  14. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Paap, Richard & Segers, Rene & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Do Leading Indicators Lead Peaks More Than Troughs?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 528-543.
  16. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2015. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 340-360.
  17. Ernesto Pasten & Yang K. Lu, 2010. "Coordination of Expectations and the Informational Role of Policy," 2010 Meeting Papers 985, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  18. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Hogrefe, Jens & Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 456/457, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  19. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
  20. Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2022. "Deep Learning Macroeconomics," Papers 2201.13380, arXiv.org.
  21. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2014. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 138-148.
  22. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Deutsche Konjunktur: leichte Rezession absehbar," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28638, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  23. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2013. "Discordant city employment cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 367-384.
  24. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
  25. Chen, Bin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2014. "A unified approach to validating univariate and multivariate conditional distribution models in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 22-44.
  26. Reuben Ellul, "undated". "Timing the Maltese business cycle: A historical perspective," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2021, Central Bank of Malta.
  27. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  28. Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(3), pages 335-364, June.
  29. Brevik, Frode & d'Addona, Stefano, 2013. "Is Ignorance Bliss? The Cost Of Business-Cycle Uncertainty," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 728-746, June.
  30. Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-43, CIRANO.
  31. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of recession in real time using GDP and GDI," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  32. Al-Anaswah, Nael & Wilfling, Bernd, 2011. "Identification of speculative bubbles using state-space models with Markov-switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1086, May.
  33. Wang, Zhuqing & Wang, Xinyu & Cheng, Qiuying & Shi, Song, 2024. "Heterogeneous impact of economic and political uncertainty on green bond volatility: Evidence from the MRS-GARCH-MIDAS-Skewed T model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
  34. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  35. Dagum, Estela Bee, 2010. "Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis/Los ciclos económicos y el análisis económico actual," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 577-594, Diciembre.
  36. Sarah Arndt & Zeno Enders, 2023. "The Transmission of Supply Shocks in Different Inflation Regimes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10839, CESifo.
  37. André Nunes Maranhão, 2024. "Brazilian Business Cycle Analysis in a High-Dimensional and Time-Irregular Span Context," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(1), pages 1-58, August.
  38. Colonnello, Stefano, 2020. "Executive compensation, macroeconomic conditions, and cash flow cyclicality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
  39. Oscar Jorda & Travis Berge, 2009. "The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions," Working Papers 308, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  40. Heij, C., 2007. "Improved forecasting with leading indicators: the principal covariate index," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-23, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  41. Michał Bernardelli & Monika Dędys, 2015. "Markov switching models in the analysis of business cycle synchronization," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 39, pages 213-228.
  42. knani, ramzi & fredj, ali, 2010. "Mondialisation et fluctuations des cycles économiques [globalisation and business cycle fluctuation]," MPRA Paper 22755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  43. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
  44. Hui, Eddie Chi-Man & Wang, Ziyou, 2015. "Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 426(C), pages 72-87.
  45. Edward E. Leamer, 2008. "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Paper 367, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Sep 2008.
  47. Jacques Anas & Monica Billio & Laurent Ferrara & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2008. "A System For Dating And Detecting Turning Points In The Euro Area," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 549-577, September.
  48. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  49. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
  50. Marcelle Chauvet & Rafael R. S. Guimaraes, 2021. "Transfer Learning for Business Cycle Identification," Working Papers Series 545, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  51. Diagne, Youssoupha S & Sène, Serigne Moustapha, 2009. "La profitabilité des secteurs de l’économie sénégalaise [Profitability of economic sectors in Senegal]," MPRA Paper 54921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. Wh Boshoff, 2005. "The Properties Of Cycles In South African Financial Variables And Their Relation To The Business Cycle," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 694-709, December.
  53. Silvia Palasca & Elisabeta Jaba, 2014. "Leading and Lagging Indicators Of the Economic Crisis," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(3), pages 31-47, September.
  54. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
  55. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
  56. Michal Bernardelli & Mariusz Prochniak & Bartosz Witkowski, 2017. "The application of hidden Markov models to the analysis of real convergence," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 59-80.
  57. Fontana, Alessandro & Corradin, Stefano, 2013. "House price cycles in Europe," Working Paper Series 1613, European Central Bank.
  58. Inna S. Lola, 2017. "The Statistical Measurement of Business Conditions for Small Entrepreneurs," HSE Working papers WP BRP 71/STI/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  59. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," MPRA Paper 53699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Troy Davig, 2008. "Detecting recessions in the Great Moderation: a real-time analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q IV), pages 5-33.
  61. Zhu, Xiaoquan & Peng, Hongfeng & Zhang, Zijian, 2020. "The nexus of judicial efficiency, social burden and default risk: Cross-country evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  62. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Gabriel Rodriguez-Rondon & Jean-Marie Dufour, 2024. "MSTest: An R-Package for Testing Markov Switching Models," Papers 2411.08188, arXiv.org.
  64. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2010. "Business cycle monitoring with structural changes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 777-793, October.
  65. Laura Pilossoph, 2021. "Comment on "From Mancession to Shecession: Women's Employment in Regular and Pandemic Recessions"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021, volume 36, pages 152-157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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