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An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange

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  1. Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Exchange risk premia, expectations formation and "news" in the Mexican peso/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 157-174.
  2. Malliaropulos, Dimitrios, 1997. "A multivariate GARCH model of risk premia in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 61-79, January.
  3. Rita Biswas & Hany Shawky, 1996. "The impact of political shocks on cointegrated exchange rate series," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 15-19.
  4. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
  5. P. Siklos, D. Waymark, 2006. "Measuring the Impact of Intervention on Exchange Market Pressure," Working Papers eg0048, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Chinn, Menzie D, 1993. "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 136-144, June.
  7. Mun, Kyung-Chun & Morgan, George Emir, 2003. "Risk premia on foreign exchange: a direct approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 231-250, July.
  8. Campbell, John Y. & Clarida, Richard H., 1987. "The term structure of euromarket interest rates : An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 25-44, January.
  9. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-479, June.
  10. Taufiq Choudhry, 2000. "Meltdown of 1987 and meteor showers among Pacific-Basin stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 71-80.
  11. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1986. "The unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis with application to France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and West Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 365-381, April.
  12. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
  13. Gregory, Allan W. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1984. "Testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in the forward foreign exchange market: A specification analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 357-368, December.
  14. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2002. "Dynamic Effects of Currency Depreciation on Stock Market Returns during the Asian Financial Crisis," Working papers 2002-31, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  15. Naka, Atsuyuki & Whitney, Gerald, 1995. "The unbiased forward rate hypothesis re-examined," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 857-867, December.
  16. Carol L. Osler, 1989. "Interest Rate Term Premiums and the Failure of the Speculative Efficiency Hypothesis: A Theoretical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 3060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Charles Engel & James D. Hamilton, 1989. "Long Swings in the Exchange Rate: Are they in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," NBER Working Papers 3165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Frederick Nieuwland & Willem Verschoor & Christian Wolff, 2000. "Exchange risk premia in the European monetary system," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 351-360.
  20. Mahajan, Arvind & Wagner, Andrew J., 1999. "Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange rates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23.
  21. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2007. "Is Sterilized Intervention Effective? New International Evidence," Working Papers 142007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  22. Napolitano, Oreste, 2000. "The efficiency hypothesis and the role of ‘news’ in the Euro/British pound exchange rate market: an empirical analysis using daily data," ISER Working Paper Series 2000-30, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  23. Marsh, Ian W. & Power, David M., 1996. "A note on the performance of foreign exchange forecasters in a portfolio framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 605-613, April.
  24. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2008. "The dynamics of ex-ante risk premia in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from the yen/usd exchange rate Using survey data," Working Papers hal-04140761, HAL.
  25. Vajanne, Laura, . "The Exchange Rate Under Target Zones," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 16, June.
  26. Hu, Xiaoqiang, 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 699-718, September.
  27. Baldwin, Richard, 1990. "Re-Interpreting the Failure of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Tests: Small Transaction Costs, Big Hysteresis Bands," CEPR Discussion Papers 407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International capital mobility and crowding-out in the U.S. economy: imperfect integration of financial markets or of goods markets?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 33-74.
  29. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Froot, Kenneth A., 1987. "Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate: Evidence from survey data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-274, September.
  30. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  31. Delcoure, Natalya & Barkoulas, John & Baum, Christopher F. & Chakraborty, Atreya, 2003. "The forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis reexamined: evidence from a new test," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-93, May.
  32. Ito, Takatoshi, 1988. "Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 296-305, May.
  33. Bilson, John F. O. & Hsieh, David A., 1987. "The profitability of currency speculation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 115-130.
  34. Shively, Philip A., 2000. "Stationary time-varying risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 273-288, April.
  35. Warren J. Tease, 1988. "Speculative Efficiency and the Exchange Rate: Some Evidence Since the Float," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(1), pages 2-13, March.
  36. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
  37. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1986. "The covariation of risk premiums and expected future spot exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages 5-21, March.
  38. sonia KOUKI, 2019. "Analysis of Risk Premium Behavior in the Tunisian Foreign Exchange Market During Crisis Period," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 10(2), pages 28-38, December.
  39. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  40. Bernard Dumas, 1993. "Partial- vs general-equilibrium models of the international capital market," Working Papers hal-00610766, HAL.
  41. Lori Leachman, 1991. "Saving, investment, and capital mobility among OECD countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 137-163, June.
  42. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Thompson, Henry, 2007. "Exchange rates, exchange risk, and Asian export revenue," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 237-254.
  43. Karen K. Lewis, 1998. "International Home Bias in International Finance and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 6351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Menzie Chinn & Jeffery Frankel, 1995. "More survey data on exchange rate expectations: More currencies, more horizons, more tests," International Finance 9508003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
  46. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  47. Ali M. Fatemi & Amir Tavakkol, 1992. "Forward Risk Premia And The Maturity Of Contracts: A Note," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 93-97, September.
  48. Levine, Ross, 1989. "An International Arbitrage Pricing Model with PPP Deviations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(4), pages 587-599, October.
  49. Sonia Pangusión Espinosa., "undated". "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 128, FEDEA.
  50. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
  51. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
  52. David W. R. Gruen & Jeremy Smith, 1994. "Excess Returns in a Small Open Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(211), pages 381-396, December.
  53. Erkko Etula, 2013. "Broker-Dealer Risk Appetite and Commodity Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 486-521, June.
  54. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner - L, 1991. "es modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 24, pages 1-59.
  55. Nelson C. Mark, 2009. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1047-1070, September.
  56. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
  57. WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?," Working papers 2005-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  58. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John, 2006. "Dynamics of Intra-EMS Interest Rate Linkages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 469-482, March.
  59. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 1999. "Time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange and equity markets: evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 291-316, November.
  60. Christian Wolff, 2000. "Forward foreign exchange rates and expected future spot rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 371-377.
  61. Cumby, Robert E., 1988. "Is it risk? : Explaining deviations from uncovered interest parity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 279-299, September.
  62. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971, Elsevier.
  64. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1987. "Foreign currency futures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
  65. Phungo, Muka & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2019. "An analysis of the unbiased forward rate hypothesis in developed and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 92222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  66. Wihlborg, Clas, 1990. "The incentive to acquire information and financial market efficiency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 347-365, June.
  67. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2011. "Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 496-513, June.
  68. Alfred Guender & Bevan Cook, 2011. "Monetary policy implementation and uncovered interest parity: Empirical evidence from Oceania," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 209-229, January.
  69. Paul D. McNelis & G.C. Lim, 1998. "Parameterizing Currency Risk in the EMS: The Irish Pound and Spanish Peseta against the German Mark," International Finance 9805001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  70. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
  71. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent Developments in Modeling Volatility in Financial Data," Papers 9168, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  72. Barry A. Goss & S. Gulay Avsar, 2016. "Can Economists Forecast Exchange Rates? The Debate Re-Visited: The Case of the USD/GBP Market," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 14-28, March.
  73. Gregory, Allan W, 1989. "A Nonparametric Test for Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity: A Markov-Chain Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 107-115, January.
  74. WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Changes: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 611-626, January.
  75. Stefano Cavaglia & Kees Koedijk & Peter Vlaar, 1994. "Exchange rate expectations and risk premia in the European Monetary System: 1985–1991," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 347-360, October.
  76. Helen Popper, 1995. "Term premia comovement in German, Japanese, and U.S. domestic markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 49-62, January.
  77. Fabio Canova & Takatoshi Ito, 1988. "On Time-Series Properties of Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  78. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1996. "Stock market volatility and the crash of 1987: evidence from six emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 969-981, December.
  79. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  80. Durlauf, Steven N. & Hall, Robert E., 1988. "Bounds on the Variances of Specification Errors in Models with Expectations," CEPR Publications 244420, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
  81. Coelho dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Figueiredo Pinto, Antonio Carlos, 2016. "Evidence of risk premiums in emerging market carry trade currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-115.
  82. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Mathur, Ike, 1997. "Central bank intervention and trading rule profits in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 513-535, August.
  83. McCurdy, Thomas H. & Morgan, Ieuan G., 1987. "Tests of the martingale hypothesis for foreign currency futures with time-varying volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 131-148.
  84. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
  85. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  86. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  87. Grossmann, Axel & Simpson, Marc W., 2015. "Bid-ask spreads, deviations from PPP and the forward prediction error: The case of the British pound and the euro," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 124-139.
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  92. Rui Albuquerque, 2004. "The Forward Premium Puzzle in a Model of Imperfect Information: Theory and Evidence," International Finance 0405007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  93. Konuki, Testuya, 1999. "Measuring noise in exchange rate models1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 255-270, August.
  94. Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Scandinavian forward discount bias risk premia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 65-72, October.
  95. Newbold, Paul & Wohar, Mark E. & Rayner, Tony & Kellard, Neil & Ennew, Christine, 1998. "Two puzzles in the analysis of foreign exchange market efficiency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 95-111.
  96. Peggy Swanson, 1998. "Spot and forward exchange rates as predictors of future spot rates: trends in exchange market value and the contribution of new information," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 129-138, June.
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  100. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2003. "Can currency risk be a source of risk premium in explaining forward premium puzzle?: Evidence from Asia-Pacific forward exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 291-311, October.
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  104. sonia KOUKI, 2019. "Analysis of Risk Premium Behavior in the Tunisian Foreign Exchange Market During Crisis Period," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 10(2), pages 28-38, December.
  105. König, Peter & Möller, Joachim, 1988. "Deviations from uncovered interest parity: A Kalman filter approach to the Mark/Dollar rate and the Swiss Franc/Dollar rate," Discussion Papers, Series II 52, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
  106. Nucci, Francesco, 2003. "Cross-currency, cross-maturity forward exchange premiums as predictors of spot rate changes: Theory and evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 183-200, February.
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  108. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
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  112. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2001. "A multivariate GARCH in mean approach to testing uncovered interest parity: evidence from Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 441-460.
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