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A note on the performance of foreign exchange forecasters in a portfolio framework

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  • Marsh, Ian W.
  • Power, David M.

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  • Marsh, Ian W. & Power, David M., 1996. "A note on the performance of foreign exchange forecasters in a portfolio framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 605-613, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:20:y:1996:i:3:p:605-613
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    2. Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
    3. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    4. Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "Comparing exchange rate forecasting models : Accuracy versus profitability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 65-79.
    5. Bilson, John F O, 1984. "Purchasing Power Parity as a Trading Strategy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 715-724, July.
    6. Solnik, Bruno, 1993. "The performance of international asset allocation strategies using conditioning information," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 33-55, June.
    7. Bilson, John F. O. & Hsieh, David A., 1987. "The profitability of currency speculation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 115-130.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Is the foreign exchange market 'risky'? Some new survey-based results," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A. & Georgopoulos, E. F. & Likothanassis, S. D., 1998. "Forecasting Exchange-Rates via Local Approximation Methods and Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 74534, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 1998.
    3. Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasters' Performance: Evidence of Skill?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2615, CESifo.
    4. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2023. "The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 625-642, April.
    5. Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
    6. Wolff, Christian & Verschoor, Willem F C & Jongen, Ron & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Fat Codruta Maria & Dezsi Eva, 2011. "Exchange-Rates Forecasting: Exponential Smoothing Techniques And Arima Models," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 499-508, July.
    8. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.
    9. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    10. A. S. Andreou & G. A. Zombanakis & E. F. Georgopoulos & S. D. Likothanassis, 2000. "In search of a warning strategy against exchange-rate attacks: Forecasting tactics using artificial neural networks," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 5, pages 1-17, January.
    11. Francesca Pancotto & Filippo Maria Pericoli & Marco Pistagnesi, 2013. "Inefficiency in Survey Exchange Rates Forecasts," Working Papers 1/13, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    12. Markus Spiwoks & Oliver Hein, 2007. "Die Währungs-, Anleihen- und Aktienmarktprognosen des Zentrums für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 1(1), pages 43-52, June.
    13. Kiss, Tamás & Kladívko, Kamil & Silfverberg, Oliwer & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Market participants or the random walk – who forecasts better? Evidence from micro-level survey data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Mary Thomson & Andrew Pollock & Karen Henriksen & Alex Macaulay, 2004. "The influence of the forecast horizon on judgemental probability forecasts of exchange rate movements," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 290-307.
    15. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2006. "Computational Intelligence in Exchange-Rate Forecasting," Working Papers 49, Bank of Greece.

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